Fed Stays the Course, Eyes One Cut, PCE Heats Up to 2.7% – BTC Drops 4%

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep playing the waiting game, holding the policy rate steady in its March 2026 meeting, firmly parked in the 3.5%‑3.75% target range. While the Fed hinted it still has one rate cut in its back pocket for this year, the next one is scheduled so far out—mid‑2027—that it might as well be written in disappearing ink, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that surging oil prices could give inflation a little nudge, but he waved off stagflation fears like a bad smell. "The forecast is that we will be making progress on inflation, not as much as we had hoped, but some progress," Powell stated, essentially admitting the economy is walking a tightrope where the job market risks falling off one side while inflation threatens to jump off the other.

The FOMC's latest crystal ball gazing has officially upgraded its inflation outlook, bumping the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Core PCE forecasts to a toasty 2.7%, up from earlier, more optimistic guesses of around 2.4%‑2.5%. The projections also warn of a spicier headline PCE in early 2027 as oil prices keep flexing. WTI crude rose 1% to $97.25 a barrel and Brent jumped a hefty 5.25% to $112.70. A 10x Research model suggests these oil prices could be the secret ingredient to push U.S. CPI toward almost 3.4%, a recipe that's already baking: February’s Producer Price Index hit 3.4% and Core PPI rose to 3.9%, its highest reading since the bear market depths of February 2023.

Crypto markets, never ones to ignore macro jitters, felt the immediate burn: Bitcoin took a more than 4% haircut over the past day, trading around $70,764. The king coin swung between a low of $70,503 and a high of $74,279, with trading volume up 23% as paper hands met diamond hands in a classic showdown.