HODLers Unclench, Miners White-Knuckle It: VanEck Spots a 'Maybe Good?' Supply Squeeze

VanEck’s latest Bitcoin ChainCheck report, dated for mid-March 2026, reveals that long-term holder selling has finally decided to take a coffee break across every age bracket, with on-chain transfer volume dipping month-over-month. The analysts, in a fit of uncharacteristic optimism, have labeled this slowdown in distribution pressure from diamond-handed veterans as a “potentially constructive signal.” Read: the bagholders are finally sitting still.

On the other side of the energy-guzzling equation, miner sell-offs remained stubbornly flat despite the economics getting tighter than a memecoin influencer's profit margins. Miner revenues cratered 11% month-over-month and mining equities slid 7%, yet the amount of BTC they sent to exchanges only inched up 1%. This suggests operators are now clinging to their remaining reserves like a degen to a 100x leverage position, opting to sweat it out rather than panic-dump.

The aggregate stash held by miners (excluding any wallets we politely pretend belong to Satoshi) currently sits at about 684,000 BTC, a mere 0.5% decline year-over-year. In that same period, the network minted roughly 164,000 new BTC, which miners promptly sold every last satoshi of. Their collective balance sheet has been on a slow, agonizing diet since late 2023, with BTC being liquidated to keep the lights on and the ASICs humming.

The mining sector is also executing a dramatic, mid-air pivot toward AI-centric business models, because when one hyper-speculative tech bet gets tough, you jump to another. Bitdeer has already rage-quit, selling its entire BTC treasury, while Core Scientific and MARA plan to liquidate holdings to fund their new AI infrastructure adventures. VanEck cautions that capital pressures are mounting as pure-play Bitcoin mining becomes a game of musical chairs; a prolonged price slump could force miners to hit the "sell" button faster, unleashing a fresh wave of supply pressure.

Bitcoin’s volatility remains as elevated as a crypto conference attendee, thanks to a delightful cocktail of lingering geopolitical uncertainty and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates high, signaling a hawkish outlook for the U.S. economy. So much for that "risk-on" environment.