Bitcoin's Bear Market: The 777-Day Itch That's Still Scratching Back

Bitcoin might be gearing up to serve its next major market bottom on a silver platter in late May 2026, assuming its historical halving patterns decide to replay like a broken record. This delightful bit of hopium is served up by JA Maartun, a community analyst at CryptoQuant, who apparently enjoys reading tea leaves made of blockchain data.

He points out that Bitcoin is currently 703 days into its post-April 2024 halving hangover. In past cycles, the market finally stopped crying in the shower and started to bottom out around the dreaded day 777. If this script holds, Maartun estimates the pain could potentially culminate in about two months—just in time for summer.

The current cycle already peaked at a heady $126,080 back in October 2025 before embarking on a correction exceeding 50%, because what's a cycle without a little violence? On-chain indicators are stubbornly refusing to leave the 'Bear Phase,' suggesting the capitulation party still has a few rounds of cheap whiskey left. Realized price models are pointing to $55,000 as the likely final floor, a number that probably feels like a distant memory to late 2025 buyers.

The halving cycles typically set the rhythm for this whole circus, like a metronome for maximalist pain. The latest one cut the block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The next scheduled dose of scarcity is expected around March or April 2028, which will drop rewards to a measly 1.5625 BTC—miners are already sweating.

This cycle decided to break the mold early by scoring a pre-halving all-time high of $73,777 in March 2024, a feat largely credited to the ravenous demand from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Yet, true to its dramatic nature, it still followed the classic script with a post-halving rally and a subsequent peak in October 2025.

Following that glorious peak, Bitcoin proceeded to shed more than half its value, dipping perilously close to $60,000 in February 2026. At the time of reporting, it was trading at $70,296, which is still a cool 44.3% below its record high—a reminder that gravity, and profit-taking, are still very much in effect.

Maartun’s thesis is simple: if the sacred four-year cycle structure holds firm, a definitive bottom could finally form in late May 2026. It’s the crypto equivalent of waiting for a scheduled train that may or may not be running on time.

The on-chain signals aren't exactly painting a bull paradise either. CryptoQuant reports Bitcoin hasn't yet reached full capitulation, with key metrics still loitering in a Bear Phase. Previous cycles only saw major lows after the market entered the much-feared 'Extreme Bear Phase,' which is basically when even the diamond hands start checking their wallet balances with one eye closed.

Adding another layer of intrigue to this saga, Bitcoin's correlation with gold has nosedived to a record low of -0.9. This level of divergence has historically been a cozy companion for market bottoms. The BTC-to-gold ratio has also cratered by about 70%, mimicking the soul-crushing troughs seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

This stark divergence suggests Bitcoin might finally be cutting the cord with traditional safe-haven assets like gold, potentially signaling it's ready to march to the beat of its own volatile, decentralized drum. Whether that's a sign of maturity or teenage rebellion remains to be seen.