Tech-Powered Gains, AI Turbulence & a Steepening Curve: Why the US Market Is Still the Ultimate Diamond-Hands Champ

Luigi Buttiglione of LB Macro, a former Brevan Howard brain, argues the US market's winning streak isn't some divine miracle—it's a straight-up tech carry. Every major tech wave in history has pumped US productivity and returns like a well-timed leverage trade, a playbook Europe has somehow managed to fumble every single time.

This productivity surge isn't just for boosting GDP bragging rights; it mechanically jacks up the neutral interest rate. Buttiglione cautions that letting policy rates lag below that neutral level would be a mid-term blunder of "buying the top" proportions—a fool's errand of chasing artificially cheap money.

Cue the main character: AI, the ultimate narrative. It's offering a classic crypto volatility package: it'll rug-pull some jobs into obsolescence, while simultaneously pumping output and wealth creation through algorithmic alpha. The net result, per Buttiglione, is a bigger economic pie for all—more productivity, more gains, and ultimately more chances to find your next bag.

But a productivity pump doesn't mean the Fed should instantly flip to "easy money" mode. Misreading this signal and easing prematurely would be like selling all your BTC at a local bottom—a surefire way to destabilize both inflation and growth. The central bank must keep the neutral rate on its charts like a crucial resistance level.

For the labor market, the forecast isn't a total apocalypse. Think less "mass liquidation event" and more of a gradual slowdown in new job creation, as AI and automation start automatically executing the more mundane, repetitive tasks.

Finally, the yield curve is primed for a bear-steepening—where long-term yields moon faster than short-term rates. This shift won't be a shitcoin; it'll be a key on-chain metric for predicting the US economy's next trend cycle.

The alpha is clear: from steam engines to LLMs, technology remains the undisputed, high-hashrate engine of US market dominance. The Fed's job is to respect the rising neutral rate, avoid hitting the "print" button too early, and watch the yield curve like a degen watches a liquidation price.