Congress Tries to Ban Themselves From Wagering on Their Own Reality Show

A new bipartisan bill has landed, aiming to stop the ultimate insiders—members of Congress, the President, and their entourages—from placing bets on prediction markets. It’s dubbed the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act, or the PREDICT Act, because nothing says "serious policy" like a tortured acronym.

The bill's sponsors, Reps. Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski, pointed to sketchy scenarios where shadowy traders apparently cleaned up by betting on geopolitical drama like wars and government shutdowns. The legislation would explicitly outlaw wagering on political events, policy decisions, and any other government action, because apparently some people need the rules written down.

Get caught, and you’ll be hit with a fine worth 10% of your contract and have to hand over all profits to the U.S. Treasury. Budzinski stressed the goal is to slam shut any loopholes, ensuring those with a front-row seat to the sausage-making factory "cannot profit from it." A novel concept in D.C.

This isn't the only piece of paper floating around targeting prediction markets. Just this month, two Democratic lawmakers rolled out the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act. Senator Chris Murphy mused that "inside information" was likely used to bet on President Trump's military moves regarding Iran, because of course it was.

Not waiting for the legislative wheels to grind, Representative Seth Moulton has already issued a full-office ban for his staff on using platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The policy forbids bets on any political, legislative, or geopolitical outcomes, or on any info learned on the job—basically, no using your government gig as a trading alpha.

Moulton labeled prediction markets "a playground for corrupt insiders" that creates "a perverse incentive structure." Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker expects more congressional offices to copy this move, dryly noting that "insider trading on things going on in Washington isn't kosher." An understatement for the ages.

At the federal regulator level, Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced a bill to stop CFTC-registered platforms from listing contracts that look like "a sports bet or casino-style game." They took a shot at the CFTC for getting a bit too cozy and relaxing its enforcement against gaming, because who needs clear rules?

On the state front, eleven states have already launched legal actions against prediction markets, with two more lining up their lawsuits. In response, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have started tightening their own rules, trying to block professional athletes and political candidates from getting in on the action.

Gouker offered a dose of reality, tempering expectations that insider trading could ever be fully eradicated. "Getting to 100% is probably an impossible ideal," he said, but added that better rules and surveillance could at least make it a much harder game to play. A classic case of aiming for "less corrupt" instead of "not corrupt."