Bitcoin Said 'Been There, Done That'—Stocks Just Got the Macro Memo

Bitcoin may have already priced in the effects of tighter monetary policy, leaving stocks more exposed to the latest macroeconomic shocks, according to asset manager Bitwise. In other words, the orange coin went to the macro party, did a lap, and left before the punch bowl got spiked—while equities are still fighting for parking.

The firm's comments come as the cryptocurrency continues to correct below $70,000, down more than 23.7% year-to-date. For those keeping score at home, that's a drawdown that would make most TradFi portfolios file for divorce, but in crypto, it's basically just Tuesday with extra steps.

Geopolitical unrest and energy disruptions, particularly from the U.S.-Iran conflict choking the Strait of Hormuz, have driven oil and gas prices higher in recent weeks. That surge has put pressure on inflation expectations, causing markets to walk back earlier bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Apparently, the Middle East decided it needed more drama than a season finale, and inflation politely declined to leave the building.

On prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi, the perceived odds of the Fed cutting interest rates this year went from near-certainty to doubtful. Traders are now pricing in a near 40% chance that rates aren't cut at all, up from less than 3%. The vibes shifted faster than a degen chasing a meme coin after a influencer's 3 AM tweet.

"Energy prices remain closely linked to inflation expectations," said Luke Deans, senior research associate at Bitwise. "The recent surge has led to a meaningful shift in monetary policy pricing, with previously anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts for the year largely reversing toward expectations of renewed tightening." Translation: the hopiumpipeline got rerouted straight to the hopium recycling center.

While equities have started to fall in response, with the S&P 500 index losing nearly 8% over the past month, Bitwise argues that bitcoin has already adjusted. The cryptocurrency has been drifting lower since October 2025, reflecting its sensitivity to liquidity and investor risk appetite. Bitcoin essentially did the macroeconomic homework early, while stocks were still procrastinating.

"Bitcoin, a highly reflexive and liquidity-sensitive asset, typically responds earlier to shifts in risk appetite," Deans said. This suggests that digital assets began reflecting tighter financial conditions ahead of many traditional risk assets. Relative valuation indicators further reinforce this dynamic. In crypto terms, BTC checked the macro weather app while everyone else was still arguing about the forecast.

One indicator, the Mayer Multiple,