Goldman Sachs Analyst Says Crypto's Down Cycle 'Mostly Done' But Warns Volume Drought Could Hurt Your 2026 Bonuses

Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro dropped a research note this week suggesting that the current Bitcoin and crypto market decline has largely hit historical average levels between peak and trough for this cycle. In other words, we've reached the part of the bear market where even your wife's boyfriend has stopped asking when Bitcoin will recover.

While recent weeks have seen some Bitcoin and crypto-related stock volatility, Yaro sees the overall market stabilizing. However, he's quick to add a caveat: trading volumes could continue declining. Because apparently, the only thing thinner than Layer 2 transaction fees right now is the action onchain.

Yaro pointed out that Bitcoin becomes more susceptible to wild price swings when trading volumes dry up, making it harder for any price movements to gain sustained momentum. Think of it like trying to fistfight in a pool of soup—technically possible, but deeply embarrassing for everyone involved.

Looking at historical patterns, trading volumes typically recover strongly about three months after hitting bottom. But if volumes keep sliding, Yaro forecasts crypto companies could face a 2% revenue hit and a 4% profit decline by 2026. Your compliance team is already practicing their "we're still bullish" faces in the mirror.

In related Goldman news, CEO David Solomon revealed last month at the World Liberty Forum in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, that he holds a small amount of Bitcoin himself—a noticeable shift from his more cautious stance throughout 2024. Yes, the same David Solomon who spent years calling crypto a "pet rock" now owns pet rocks himself. The man has discovered tulips at exactly the wrong time, and we respect the journey.

On the price action front, Bitcoin has slipped back to the $60,000 level this week. According to David Morrison, Bitcoin previously ran into resistance around $72,000 before retreating. The daily MACD indicator is currently trading sideways at neutral levels, leaving the short-term trend direction anyone's guess. At this point, predicting Bitcoin's next move requires either insider information or a very dusty crystal ball.

*This is not investment advice.