Analyst: Bitcoin's Road to $100K Runs Through Tehran, Not the Halving

Bitcoin has been chilling below the $100,000 mark for months now, and honestly, it's getting a little awkward. The price continues to trade more than 40% below its all-time high as massive sell-offs keep pushing things down. But one pseudonymous analyst thinks they've figured out when the king crypto will make its grand return to six-figure territory.

According to @RoccobullboTTom on X, the Bitcoin price will surge when the US-Iran war ends. The analyst explains this will be the catalyst that eventually pushes $BTC back above $100,000. Apparently, the key to unlocking Bitcoin's next leg up isn't another halving or some ETF inflows—it's geopolitics doing what geopolitics does best: ruining everything until it suddenly doesn't.

The conflict has been affecting financial markets across the globe, and Bitcoin hasn't been immune. The cryptocurrency market continues to feel the impact as inflows have slowed down. This negative macroeconomic climate has put a damper on the Bitcoin price, and investors remain wary. Nothing says "risk-on asset" quite like global uncertainty, and Bitcoin has been doing its best impression of a deer caught in the headlights while the world figures out whose bright idea this whole war thing was.

Looking at past performances, the analyst points to the initial run from the $15,000 low in 2022, the rapid rise from $49,000 to $104,000 in 2024, and the notable 2025 rally that took Bitcoin to its $126,000 all-time high. Each bull run saw Bitcoin rise more than 100% from previous levels to hit new ATHs. Classic Bitcoin being Bitcoin—dipping, doubling, and giving everyone heart attacks before printing new highs like it's nothing.

Based on this pattern, the analyst believes the next bull run could take Bitcoin between $150,000 and $200,000. However, all of this hinges on improved macroeconomic conditions—most notably, the end of the Iran war. So there you have