Bitcoin Plays Hide and Seek With $68K as ETF outflows hit $290M and the crowd heads for the exits

Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged over $290 million last week as the broader market embraced full risk-off mode, proving once again that even the orange coin isn't immune to geopolitical jitters and macro headwinds. Because apparently, HODLing is a lot easier when your portfolio isn't getting liquidated by bombs and Fed speak.

Farside Investors data shows cumulative weekly outflows of roughly $296 million between March 24 and March 27, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the redemption parade. The ugliest single day? Friday, when $225.5 million walked out the door—though Monday had actually started with a respectable $167.2 million in inflows before sentiment did a 180. Nothing says "we believe in the asset class" like flipping from bullish to panic selling faster than a degen on a leverage pump.

"Risk-off is clearly the mood amongst markets," Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, told Decrypt, noting Bitcoin's descent to a three-week low and the S&P 500's fifth consecutive weekly loss—its longest losing streak since 2022. "Triple-digit oil is fuelling inflation fears, which pushes rate cut expectations further out, which in turn removes the very catalyst that risk assets need to find a floor." Translation: the Fed's rate cut hopium is officially dead, and your altfolio is bleeding.

The geopolitical spice came courtesy of President Donald Trump telling the Financial Times he could "take the oil in Iran" and potentially seize Kharg Island, the country's major fuel hub. Because nothing says 'market stability' like oil threats and Middle East escalation. Nothing gets traders selling risk assets quite like the Commander in Chief casually dropping "seize the oil" in an interview.

Bitcoin traded around $68,000 on Sunday—down roughly 2% over 24 hours and about 6% over seven days—while the Iran conflict entered its fourth week, pushing crude higher and dragging risk assets along for the ride. $68K is basically the new $65K at this point. We are so back... to range trading.

Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Labs, called the "risk-off" tone the primary driver, though he noted last week's outflow "doesn't seem that dramatic compared to recent trends." Cool, so we're just normalizing $300 million weekly redemptions now. This is fine. Everything is fine.

Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, attributed the exodus to "risk-off sentiment and end of quarter rebalancing" while pointing out the $290 million figure is "quite normal." He also noted Bitcoin's relative strength against other asset classes remains "notable and very supportive" and cautioned against reading too much into weekly flow data. Translation: don't panic, but also don't not panic.

"ETF inflows/outflows are not only directional funds—there is a lot of basis trading done by hedge funds," Kala said. "Therefore, there are no hard limits or thresholds that would signal a structural change." So those ETFs might just be arbitrage bots fighting each other. Great. Love that for us.

Gilbert said Bitcoin had held up relatively well through the conflict and was "a surprising standout despite its risk status as an asset," but warned ongoing tensions show it is "in no way immune to this indiscriminate sell-off." Bitcoin: still the most resilient bagholder asset, except when it's not.

The market's pricing in a Fed rate hike now—"a far cry from the multiple cuts the market was pricing in just months ago," Gilbert noted. Remember when we thought we'd get six rate cuts in 2024? Good times. Those were simpler days. Those were innocent days.

Meanwhile, on Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, sentiment leans bearish with users pricing a 56.8% likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 rather than climbing to $84,000. The people have spoken: we're going down, and they're betting on it.

Bitcoin was recently trading at $67,574, up 1.4% in the last 24 hours, after slipping into the $65,000 range earlier Monday. Green day. Existential dread temporarily abated.

In related action, Circle Internet Group's stock has shed roughly a quarter of its value over the past week, opening March 24 near $126, crashing 20% to close at $101, briefly recovering, then sliding to $93 by week's end. USDC issuer having a