NUPL Still Positive, So Bitcoin's Bottom Is Apparently on a Coffee Break

CryptoQuant senior analyst Julio Moreno has some bad news for anyone hoping Bitcoin has already hit rock bottom: we ain't there yet, degens.

According to Moreno, while the market might be approaching what he calls the "final stress phase," the necessary conditions for a definitive bottom haven't fully materialized. The key culprit? The NUPL indicator, which tracks the profit and loss of long-term investors, is approaching a critical turning point but hasn't yet flashed the final bottom signal. Spoiler alert: that signal looks like your portfolio after a bad decision at 3 AM.

For the uninitiated, NUPL turning negative has been the hallmark of true bottoms in past market cycles. The current data shows long-term investor profitability has taken a brutal hit—plummeting from 58 percent all the way down to 3 percent since peaking in October last year. That's not a dip, that's a cliff dive with no parachute.

However, here's the kicker: NUPL remains above zero, which means the market hasn't quite reached the dreaded "surrender" stage. Moreno noted that these confidence tests can last anywhere from 6 to 277 days in historical cycles, so nobody should hold their breath expecting a quick turnaround. Your hopium stash might need to last longer than your relationship with your ex.

The bottom line? A true bottom doesn't just involve pressure—it requires investors' accumulated profits to be completely wiped out and turned into losses. Until NUPL dips into negative territory, early bottom expectations should remain limited. In other words, the pain trade isn't done with you yet.

*This is not investment advice.