Bitcoin Snorts Some Copium, Altcoins Party Like It's a Bull Market (For Now)

Bitcoin and ether managed to scrape together some gains on Monday, with BTC climbing 2.1% to $67,602.88 and ETH adding 3.1% to $2,045. But let's not pop the champagne just yet — both remain trapped in their familiar range, stuck below key resistance like a cat in a bathtub. Spoiler: the cat is also us.

Altcoins stole the spotlight, with CHZ, FET and OP jumping more than 6% in what can only be described as a relief rally born from oversold conditions. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index and DeFi Select Index led the charge, up 2.8% and 2.2% respectively, while the bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 managed a modest 1.5%. Nothing says "conviction" like a bounce off the dip bucket.

The mood, however, remains distinctly uneasy. The conflict with Iran is now entering its fifth week, and despite Pakistan's best diplomatic efforts, markets aren't exactly buying the peace talk hype. Brent crude surged to $108 per barrel over the weekend — up from the low $70s before hostilities began — sending a clear signal that traders expect this mess to drag on. Oil going vertical while your portfolio goes horizontal? Classic.

On the derivatives side, things look equally lukewarm. Bitcoin futures open interest hit a near two-month high of 748.65 BTC on Saturday but has since stalled. Perpetual funding rates are near zero, and 24-hour cumulative volume delta remains negative — both suggesting a bias toward bearish, short positions. Notably, BTC OI actually declined during the spot price bounce from the Asian session low around $65,000, indicating this rally is largely spot-driven and hasn't won over the leveraged crowd. The degens remain skeptical. Shocking.

Over on Bittfinex, BTC/USD longs hit their highest level since November 2023. For the historically inclined, this has typically been a contrary indicator — often coinciding with selloffs. Fun stuff. Very fun stuff. Definitely not concerning at all.

AVAX and LTC stand out with double-digit percentage gains in futures OI, though the negative CVDs suggest most of those inflows are tied to bearish bets. Implied volatility has softened to around 55% from 58% over the weekend, indicating relative calm despite the geopolitical noise. The calm before the storm, or just collective exhaustion? You decide.

Across all time frames on Deribit, BTC and ETH puts continue to cost more than calls — a clear sign of lingering downside worries. Dealer gamma remains predominantly negative between $65,000 and $70,000, meaning market makers could keep this range intact by buying low and selling high. The range continues to rage, and by rage we mean gently oscillate like a dying sine wave.

The broader trend remains bearish on higher time frames, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows dating back to October. Bitcoin hasn't broken above $75,000 or below $62,800 since early February — truly a thrilling existence for range traders and everyone else. Living the dream, one choppy candle at a time.

The perceived altcoin strength? Largely a liquidity ghost. When prices tanked Friday