Bernstein Yells "Bottom!" While Crypto Stocks Shop at 60% Off

Bernstein analysts just screamed "bottom!" from the rooftop, declaring crypto-linked equities are trading at "massive discounts" after a drawdown so brutal it made your grandmother's portfolio look like a degen's dream. In a Monday note, the research firm argued digital asset infrastructure stocks — exchanges, brokerages, and tokenization platforms — are roughly 60% below recent highs, even as underlying businesses keep expanding across stablecoins, derivatives, prediction markets, and tokenized real-world assets. The analysts expect the weakness to persist through first-quarter earnings before stabilizing, pointing to a potential bottom forming. Classic "buy the dip" energy, except this time the dip has its own dip.

The view extends Bernstein's recent stance that parts of the crypto equity selloff — including Circle-related regulatory concerns — may have overshot fundamentals. Sometimes the market overcorrects so hard it practically invents new floor levels.

Coinbase retained its outperform rating with a revised price target of $330, down from $440. Despite weaker Q1 trading volumes, analysts expect earnings growth to remain intact and project revenue to expand at roughly 26% CAGR through 2027. Stablecoins are doing most of the heavy lifting, with Coinbase capturing roughly half of Circle's USDC revenue, while derivatives and newer products increasingly contribute. Subscription and services revenue, including stablecoin income, provides a buffer against crypto price volatility. Basically, USDC is the sugar daddy keeping Coinbase's lights on while waiting for the next bull run to save trading fees.

Robinhood Markets also keeps its outperform rating with a $130 price target, lowered from $160. Bernstein still sees earnings growing about 25% in 2026 despite a softer Q1 for both equity and crypto trading. Prediction markets emerged as a central growth engine, potentially reaching roughly 10% of total revenue in 2026 via Kalshi distribution and Robinhood's own exchange. The firm highlighted diversification into non-trading revenue less sensitive to crypto volatility, including margin lending, subscriptions, and banking. Nothing says "we're a serious financial institution" quite like letting users bet on whether Congress will actually pass crypto legislation.

Figure Technology Solutions maintained an outperform rating with a $67 price target, trimmed from $72. Analysts describe Figure as a pure-play on blockchain-based tokenization with revenue streams less directly tied to crypto price movements. Loan origination volumes are expected to reach $12.8 billion in 2026, supported by home equity lines, new credit products, and marketplace expansion. Monthly originations already surpassed $1 billion as of March. Tokenizing real-world assets: because apparently DeFi needed more boring finance to feel legitimate.

The broad outlook suggests a weak quarter but stronger setup beyond Q1. Across all three companies, Bernstein sees near-term earnings softness stemming from macro pressure and crypto market sentiment rather than structural issues — valuations reset faster than fundamentals. The market: "