Risk-On Rodeo: Ceasefire Dreams and Hot Data Send Stocks to the Moon While Oil Gets Crushed

The US stock market extended its rally on Wednesday as growing expectations of an Iran ceasefire combined with stronger-than-expected economic data to fuel broad risk-on sentiment. Semiconductors and tech led the advance while energy stocks retreated sharply on falling oil prices. Basically, the market decided that war bad, money printing good, and nothing says "America is fine" quite like watching your 401(k) green while the Middle East figures out its differences.

Iran Ceasefire Hopes Spark Risk-On Rotation

President Donald Trump told reporters the US could exit Iran in two to three weeks, signaling a potential end to the five-week conflict. The comments followed reports that Iran had asked for a ceasefire and that the US would consider ending hostilities if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Markets treated the remarks as a meaningful de-escalation signal, pushing capital out of safe havens and into equities. Nothing gets bulls more bullish than the possibility of oil tankers actually being able to, you know, move through a shipping lane without triggering WWIII. The VIX probably did its best impression of a declining meme coin.

ADP Payrolls and Retail Sales Show Economic Resilience

March Automatic Data Processing (ADP) private payrolls came in at 62,000, beating the Dow Jones consensus of 39,000-40,000. February retail sales also rebounded 0.6%, ahead of the 0.5% forecast. Together, the data reassured investors that the US economy can absorb the energy shock from elevated oil prices without tipping into contraction. The soft landing crew is doing victory laps today. Those "recession calls" are looking about as credible as a 100x leverage position on a shitcoin with no volume.

ISM Manufacturing Expands But Flashes an Inflation Warning

The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.7 in March from 52.4 in February. However, the prices index surged to 78.3, its highest level since June 2022. The expansion reading supported the growth narrative, but rising input costs tied to the war kept inflation concerns alive. Meanwhile, gold surged above $4,720 per ounce, adding roughly $100 on the day as investors continued rotating out of dollars and into the metal as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and sticky inflation. Goldbugs are having a moment, and honestly, after watching the dollar get absolutely rinsed on rate cut fantasies, who can blame them?

What Happened to Major US Indexes?

S&P 500: +1.12% Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.89% (+413 points to 46,754) Nasdaq Composite: +1.67% (+361 points to 21,951) Russell 2000: +1.54%

Market breadth was overwhelming, with 69.8% of issues (3,889) advancing against just 26.3% (1,468) declining. The NYSE Tick Index spiked to 2,329 on March 31, the highest reading on record, surpassing the previous all-time high of approximately 2,200 set in April 2025. On the daily chart, the S&P 500 traded at 6,601, sitting right at the 0.5 Fibonacci level of 6,606. A daily close above 6,606 would open the path toward 6,699 and eventually 6,815. This breadth is so strong even your aunt's failing retail stock is green today.

Which Sectors Are Holding Up?

Basic Materials gained 2.56% to lead all sectors. A weaker US Dollar Index at 99.44 made commodities cheaper for international buyers, while gold's surge above $4,720 per ounce lifted miners and materials producers. Industrials rose 2.23% as ceasefire optimism boosted infrastructure and defense-adjacent names. Boeing gained 4.95% and Caterpillar added 3.76%. Technology advanced 1.90%, powered by semiconductors. Micron Technology surged 11.34% on renewed confidence in a memory and AI supercycle. Intel gained 9.93% after announcing a $14.2 billion repurchase of its Ireland fab stake from Apollo Global Management. Nvidia added 1.63%. Semiconductors are back, baby. Nothing says "AI is still going to change everything" quite like Micron printing double digits while the rest of the market just tries not to screw it up.

Which Sectors Are Falling?

Energy was the day's clear laggard, down 3.03%. Brent crude fell 1.89% to $102 per barrel as ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening expectations reduced the war risk premium on oil. ExxonMobil dropped 5.17% and Chevron fell 4.87%. Consumer Defensive slipped 0.74%, as investors rotated out of safe-haven staples and into higher-beta growth names. Philip Morris fell 5.72% and Procter & Gamble dropped 0.79%. Oil getting absolutely destroyed today is the gift that keeps on giving for anyone who's been paying $4 for gas and wondering why their portfolio was bleeding out.

Major Stock News

Nike plunged 14.40% to an 11-year low after reporting fiscal Q3 results. Although the company beat on both revenue ($11.28 billion) and earnings ($0.35 per share), guidance blindsided the market. Management projected Q4 sales to decline 2% to