Bitcoin's 90% Wipeouts Are Becoming a Relic, And Wall Street Finally Noticed

Bitcoin's reputation has historically been built on extreme boom-and-bust cycles, with steep drawdowns of up to 90% following all-time highs. This cycle, however, the decline has been closer to 50%, a shift that analysts said reflects the maturation of BTC as an asset class. Apparently, Bitcoin decided that 90% crashes were so 2017 and decided to try on something a little more... dignified. Like a responsible adult who finally upgraded from eating cereal for every meal.

"Bitcoin's drawdowns compressing to about 50% is a sign of a maturing market structure," AdLunam co-founder and market analyst Jason Fernandes told CoinDesk. "As liquidity deepens and institutional participation increases, volatility naturally compresses on both the upside and the downside," he added, saying that "at that point, the narrative shifts from questioning its legitimacy to optimizing allocation." In other words, Bitcoin's rebellious teenage phase is officially over. It's paying taxes now and everything.

Fernandes' comments are in response to Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Zack Wainwright's X post Tuesday, in which he noted growth is becoming "less impulsive," with a reduced probability of extreme downside events as bitcoin matures. Wainwright pointed out that the current drawdown from the Oct. 6 all-time-high of just over $126,200 is much less significant than previous pullbacks. "Each cycle has been less dramatic to the upside than the previous and downside risk has also been less dramatic," he said. So yes, Bitcoin is still delivering life-changing returns, just with fewer heart attacks attached.

Fernandes and Wainwright were referring to previous "bust" periods, most notably following the peaks of 2013 and 2017. After reaching a high of approximately $1,163 in late 2013, bitcoin entered a prolonged "crypto winter" that saw its price plummet to around $152 by January 2015, representing a drawdown of roughly 87%. A similar pattern was seen after the 2017 bull run, when it reached $20,000 in December before plummeting roughly 84% to $3,122 over the following 12 months. Ah, simpler times, when your portfolio could lose almost everything and you'd just shrug and call it " DCAing."

Not all analysts agree that deeper drawdowns are off the table. Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone told CoinDesk that he believes bitcoin could still see a "normal reversion" toward $10,000, arguing that "the crypto bubble is over" and that any downturn could coincide with broader declines across equities, commodities and other risk assets. McGlone has been waving the $10,000 flag for a while now, which must be frustrating for Bitcoin, kind of like having that one friend who keeps predicting the apocalypse but never quite gets the date right.

However, Fernandes, who has previously dissented with McGlone's $10,000 forecast, said that scale itself is part of the story. As bitcoin grows into a larger asset class, the likelihood of 90% collapses diminishes simply because the capital required to drive such moves is too great. That effect is reinforced by institutional integration, from ETFs to pension exposure, which makes large-scale unwinds structurally harder. You can't crash 90