Saylor's Streak Snaps, But MSTR Keeps Chasing Divergence Dust—With Each Bounce Getting Sadder

Strategy (MSTR) bounced 6.31% from its recent low after a bullish RSI divergence flashed on the 4-hour chart, even as the company broke a 13-week Bitcoin buying streak that had defined its treasury playbook. The bounce mirrors three prior divergence-driven rallies since December, but each one has been progressively smaller. The reason shows up in the Chaikin Money Flow, which has fallen deeper below zero with each attempt. With Bitcoin up 3% at press time and a 0.93 rolling 7-day correlation tethering the Strategy stock price to BTC, the next move depends on whether external momentum can compensate for fading institutional conviction in the stock itself.

Each Divergence Bounce Gets Smaller as Institutional Money Fades

The 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence between December 1 and March 31. Price printed a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that measures the speed of price changes, printed a higher low. That pattern has triggered MicroStrategy price bounces three times since February 2026, but the trajectory is telling.

The first divergence, between December 1 and February 12, produced a 24.52% rally. At that time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a volume-weighted indicator tracking institutional buying and selling pressure, sat above the zero line. Large amounts of money were flowing into MSTR stock alongside the price move.

The second divergence, through March 12, produced a 14.72% bounce. CMF had dropped to the zero line and was beginning to slip below it.

The third, through March 23, managed only 7.07% with CMF well below zero.

The current MSTR bounce of 6.31% is unfolding with CMF at -0.34, its deepest negative reading in this entire sequence. The pattern is clear. Each time RSI divergence triggers a bounce, the rally delivers less upside because institutional capital is not backing the move. The divergence provides a technical spark, but without CMF confirmation, the spark burns shorter each time.

The company did not buy BTC during the week of March 30, ending a 13-week consecutive buying streak. Since that announcement, the Strategy stock price dropped approximately 9.51% before the current divergence-led bounce began.

Bitcoin's 0.93 Correlation Is a Lifeline for Strategy Shares and a Risk

Despite the fading internal momentum courtesy of weak institutional