DATs Getting Wrecked: Nakamoto's Fire Sale Has Analysts Seeing Contagion in the Treasury Market

Nakamoto (NAKA) just dumped 284 Bitcoin in March for $20 million — that's roughly $70,000 per coin. Ouch. Nothing says "confidence in your treasury strategy" quite like selling at prices that would make even the most degenerate gambler wince.

The treasury company also trimmed its stake in Metaplanet at a loss, marking what market analyst Nic Puckrin calls "cracks beginning to show in the digital asset treasury (DAT) market." Because nothing screams "healthy market" quite like publicly traded companies quietly eating losses on their corporate HODL stacks while pretending everything is fine.

The timing isn't great. Nakamoto's BTC holdings peaked at over $711 million in October 2025 when Bitcoin hit around $126,000. By year-end, the company valued its 5,342 BTC treasury at $467.5 million — good for a $166.1 million loss on paper in Q4 alone, per their SEC 10-K filing. That's a $243 million swing in just a few months. For those keeping score at home, that's the kind of volatility that makes traditional CFOs cry into their spreadsheets.

Puckrin thinks this could be the start of something uglier. "Price is likely to remain below $70,000 for some time and could fall further to a range around $55,700-$58,200 in the coming weeks," he said. The Middle East situation adds more pressure in what could become a reinforcing cycle of weakness hitting DATs, potentially triggering more forced selling. Nothing like geopolitical chaos to really spice up your treasury valuations, amirite?

MARA wasn't sitting this one out either. The mining giant sold 15,133 BTC in March — over $1 billion worth — to repurchase and retire about $1 billion in convertible debt. Their VP of investor relations was quick to clarify it's tactical, not a core strategy shift: they ain't liquidating the majority of reserves. Translation: "Please don't sell, we promise we're still bullish... we just needed the cash."

The DAT sector already saw net asset value premiums collapse in Q3 2025, with stock