Bitcoin Logs Modest Gains as Trump Gives Iran War a 2-3 Week Expiration Date

Asian stocks posted their best day in months and S&P 500 futures jumped after the president said he would address the nation Wednesday night with an important update on Iran. Oil pared losses as the UAE reportedly prepares to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force. Meanwhile, the rest of us were just trying to figure out if this was actually bullish or if we'd wake up to another rug pull by breakfast.

Bitcoin traded at $67,950 on Tuesday, up 0.2% over 24 hours, as a wave of optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict lifted risk assets across the board. Ether rose 1.6% to $2,100, its strongest daily move in weeks. XRP gained 0.5% to $1.34, dogecoin added 0.5% to $0.09, and BNB edged up 0.4% to $616. Solana's SOL was the notable laggard, dropping 0.7% to $83.14 and extending weekly losses to 8.7%. Somewhere, SOL holders are wondering why they can't have nice things while the rest of crypto catches a bid.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged 4%, its best session since the war began, with nearly 10 stocks rising for every one that fell. Asian tech jumped 6.5%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix surging more than 9% each. S&P 500 futures climbed, and the index notched its biggest single-day gain since May. Even your uncle who only trades Tencent is suddenly a geopolitical genius again.

The catalyst was Trump telling reporters he expected the war to end within two to three weeks and that a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite for concluding the conflict. He announced a national address Wednesday at 9 p.m. Eastern to provide what he called an important update. Iran's president Masoud Pezeshkian told the EU Council president that Tehran has the necessary will to end this war but expects guarantees against future aggression. Nothing says "peace in our time" quite like asking for guarantees from the same people who've been promising peace for, checks notes, several thousand years.

Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, which would make it the first Gulf state to enter the conflict as a combatant. Brent crude edged back above $105 after Tuesday's decline. Oil traders everywhere are experiencing the emotional equivalent of watching their portfolio on a roller coaster designed by someone who hates them.

The crypto market's reaction was muted relative to equities, a