A Whopping 87.5% of Bitcoin Is Still in Profit — So About That Bottom...

Well, well, look who's back above $68K like nothing happened. Bitcoin tacked on a tidy 3% in 24 hours, but let's not pop the champagne just yet — the broader downtrend is still very much in the driver's seat. The 365-day profitability average is sitting at a stubbornly high 87.5%, which means nobody's really feeling the pain yet. For context, previous cycles didn't hit true bottom until this metric took a deep dive down to 63.8%. April has a reputation for being kind to Bitcoin, but history also remembers years like 2014 and 2022 when the month pulled a villain arc. The data keeps whispering that Bitcoin might need to visit sub-$54,000 territory before this market finds its happy place.

CryptoQuant's very own Axel Adler Jr. dropped some knowledge as of April 1, 2026: the percentage of BTC coins swimming in green sits at 66.4%, with the 30-day moving average chilling at 69.1%. Cute, right? But here's the plot twist — the real telltale metric, good old SMA365, is still cruising at 87.5%. This is precisely what makes today's situation different from those wholesome bear market resets everyone keeps waiting for.

Adler pointed out that this SMA365 thing has a PhD in confirming market capitulation. Back in 2017, it mooned all the way to 96-97%, then decided to humble itself and dropped to 63.8% by May 2019. That dramatic fall from grace was the market's way of saying "we're not kidding around" after the bull run threw its final party.

This time, though, the script got thrown in the shredder. Short-term data looks about as exciting as a blank whiteboard, but SMA365 remains stubbornly close to 87.5%. Translation: the market hasn't hit the panic button yet. No capitulation. No white flags. Just a bunch of holders clutching their bags like they're filled with gold.

Adler also played historian, comparing today's gloom with earlier tantrums in this cycle. Remember September 2023 and September 2024? The market got a little sad, short-term profitability wobbled, but the long-term average just yawned. The 2026 correction went full gremlin mode though. The metric already nosedived to 55.7%, and the 30DMA hit 66.7%. But SMA365 is still strutting around way higher than those past reset levels, proving that the deep, soul-cleansing long-term reset hasn't shown up to the party yet.

So Adler's verdict? The market is absolutely under pressure — profitability's shrinking faster than your portfolio after a bad trade. But here's the thing: as long as SMA365 loiters near 87