Bitcoin's Bear Market Reset? The Button's Stuck, Man

Bitcoin has not yet witnessed the profit structure reset that the market witnessed in previous bear markets, despite the persistent declines. The chart looks like someone pressed pause on the grief cycle and just left it there, buffering indefinitely while our portfolios gently weep into the void.

Bitcoin ($BTC) has opened April with a modest rebound, rising 3% in the past 24 hours and moving back above the $68,000 mark. Despite this short-term strength, the broader trend still points downward, showing that the market remains under pressure. It's giving "slightly less underwater than yesterday" energy—progress, technically, but not exactly the dopamine hit degens were hoping for.

The 365-day average of profitability remains high at 87.5%, indicating no full reset. In past cycles, the long-term average dropped to 63.8% before a profit structure reset played out. Imagine if every time you tried to panic sell, the market just whispered "not yet, child" and held you at arm's length from your losses. That's where we are.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that as of April 1, 2026, the rate of $BTC coins in profit has risen to 66.4%, and the 30-day moving average remains at 69.1%. However, the 365-day moving average is still high at 87.5%, which sets the current situation apart from past bear market resets. Axel doing the crypto equivalent of checking your account balance with your eyes half-closed—technically looking, but emotionally unprepared for what you'll see.

Adler pointed out that after reaching 96-97% at the end of 2017, the SMA365 dropped steadily and fell to 63.8% by May 2019. This sharp drop showed that the market had gone through a deep correction. Back then, BTC investors actually experienced what veterans call "real pain"—the kind where you stop checking prices and start researching hobby horses.

This time, things look different. Even though short-term data shows weakness, the SMA365 remains close to 87.5%, which suggests the market has not yet reached a full capitulation stage. We're stuck in that weird middle ground where everyone's too stubborn to sell and too scared to buy—the crypto equivalent of a group chat where nobody wants to start the conversation after the awkward thing happened.

The 2026 drawdown has gone further. The metric