Trump Declares "No Inflation," Markets Reply with a 6.2% Screenshot of Reality

While President Trump continues insisting the economy is mooning with zero inflation, US consumers appear to have forgotten to read the whitepaper on his economic thesis.

Fresh March data shows consumer inflation expectations pumped 0.7 percentage points to 6.2%—the highest reading since August 2025 and the steepest single-month climb since April 2025, according to The Kobeissi Letter. Apparently, dad doesn't always know best when it comes to reading the charts.

The University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations gauge confirmed the FUD, rising 0.4 percentage points to 3.8%, also marking the largest monthly increase since April 2025. The vibes are off, and the consumer sentiment index isn't buying what the White House is selling.

Here's the alpha: 42.4% of consumers now expect higher interest rates over the next year—up 7.5 percentage points. That's not just price anxiety about avocado toast anymore; this is full-blown financial PTSD spreading beyond grocery receipts into broader economic expectations. The crowd is starting to price in rate hikes like they're pricing in a hard fork.

Oil Adding Fuel to the Fire

US crude is trading above $100 per barrel, and The Kobeissi Letter's models project CPI inflation could hit approximately 3.3% if prices hold for two more months. That would mark the highest US inflation since May 2024—because apparently, $100 oil is just the market's way of saying "nice try, transitory gang."

The OECD has also revised its 2026 US headline inflation forecast up by 1.2 percentage points to 4.2%. Someone's getting downgraded from "soft landing" to "hold my beer."