Myriad Traders Say 'GM' to Iran Ground Game: 90% Odds Boots Hit Soil Before Month's End

Prediction market degens on Myriad—running on Decrypt’s parent company’s rails—just cranked the dial to “maximum drama,” pricing in a 90% chance of U.S. boots stomping Iranian soil before the calendar flips. That’s not just a hop from yesterday’s 60%; that’s a full degen moonshot on geopolitical volatility, like levering up on a memecoin right before the rug check.

The sudden surge in doom-futures came after what looked suspiciously like an F-15 getting its wings clipped in Iranian airspace—prompting a real-life Call of Duty rescue op. CNN confirmed one pilot made it back to the squad; the fate of the second aircrew member? Still floating in the mempool of uncertainty.

The U.S.-Israel vs. Iran saga has now hit Day 35 of what feels like a badly written action movie with no end credits in sight. Ground troops would be the nuclear-powered Lamborghini of escalations—sending shockwaves through global supply chains, spiking insurance rates, and making oil traders sweat through their $3,000 suits. We’re already in the worst oil supply disruption since the days of MySpace and flip phones.

Senator Roger Marshall, whose son is currently living the military life, chimed in with the kind of dad-energy we’ve come to expect: “Boots on the ground? I sure hope not.” So far, 15 U.S. soldiers have been confirmed KIA—real lives, not just P&L statements on a trading screen.

Meanwhile, Trump—yes, that guy—claimed Operation Epic Fury is “nearly complete” and casually dropped that Iran’s regime has already changed. Bro, the only thing that’s changed is your hairline. Myriad traders, wisely unimpressed, gave that take a 25% chance of being accurate—meaning there’s a 75% probability Iran’s hardline crew, freshly promoted after some unfortunate vacancies in the leadership, will still be running the show by October.

And because geopolitics isn’t spicy enough, Trump also floated the idea of seizing oil from the Strait of Hormuz to “make a fortune.” Cool, cool—so we’re just doing piracy now? The Strait handles about 20% of the world’s oil flow, so no, not a big deal at all. Just another day in the Pax Americana DLC.

Oil markets, ever the drama queens, responded with flair. WTI crude futures popped 0.47% to $112.07 per barrel Thursday—flirting with four-year highs like a degen at a Vegas afterparty. Myriad’s crystal ball shows an 83% chance WTI hits $120 before eventually crashing to $55. Meanwhile, Brent crude spiked to $141—its highest since 2008, according to S&P Global. At this rate, filling up your Tesla will require a flash loan.

On-chain, the Bitcoin grind never stops. Publicly traded miner MARA—yes, the one that treats BTC like a corporate ATM—axed 15% of its workforce shortly after offloading $1.1 billion worth of BTC. The move, confirmed to Decrypt, cuts deep across departments and might leave contractors crying into their underpaid gigs. Efficiency gains, or just prepping for the next halving panic? You decide.

Fellow miner Riot Platforms didn’t miss the dump window either—moving over $250 million in BTC during Q1, selling 3,778 coins at an average north of $76,000. That’s right: they’re playing the