Garrett Jin's Alpha Reveal: Oil Is the Original Block Reward—And the Strait of Hormuz Still Ain't Priced In

Garrett Jin, a well-known crypto whale, dropped a spicy take on global markets that's got the room buzzing. His thesis? Oil isn't just another asset class—it's the fundamental driver behind everything: stocks, bonds, crypto, even central bank policy. All of it is just 'downstream' from the black gold, according to Jin.

The whale reckons the closure of the Strait of Hormuz for weeks hasn't been fully priced into markets yet. And the conflict itself? It's evolved from what was expected to be a limited air operation into a full-blown war of attrition. US ground troops on the ground means a quick exit is looking less likely by the day.

Jin's take on Iran's strategy: they're not chasing a direct military win. Instead, they want to make the war so expensive that Washington throws in the towel. That means structural oil price hikes, not just temporary spikes.

The most likely scenario? A prolonged grind that actually benefits US interests—high oil prices could push global energy demand back toward North American production.

Markets have priced in the war's existence, Jin says, but not its duration. Polymarket data backs this vibe check: ceasefire probability by end of April sits at just 18%, 34% by end of May, and 46% by end of June. Short-term peace? Apparently not in the cards.

*This is not investment advice.