Bitcoin's MACD Finally Wakes Up From Its Nap — And It Smells Like $25K

Bitcoin is flirting with a bullish MACD cross on the weekly chart for the first time since May 2025, and bulls are doing victory laps like they just found out the printer still works. The last time this happened, BTC went from $94,000 to $119,000 in two months — a tidy $25,000 gain that had degens typing "to the moon" with slightly less irony than usual. This time, the weekly close reclaimed the 200-week EMA, and if history rhymes, hodlers might be in for a treat. Or maybe just a trap. Who's to say.

The weekly MACD flip has been a rarer sight than a functioning customer support ticket. As X resource GalaxyTrading noted, the 2018 bear market took 245 days for the weekly MACD to turn positive — almost as long as it takes to get a refund from a centralized exchange. In 2022? Another 245 days of pain. In 2026, we hit that milestone by late April — and now the cross is teasing again like that one friend who says they're "totally coming" to the party.

Bitcoin tagged $70,000 after the weekly close, hitting fresh April highs and catching shorts with their pants down so fast you'd think they were trading on leverage alone. Total crypto liquidations topped $250 million in 24 hours — a beautiful display of risk management by the market. Aggressive short-term traders are piling back in, with open interest and cumulative net taker volume spiking on Binance like it's 2021 all over again. As CryptoQuant's Amr Taha put it, traders are getting frisky with fresh exposure as BTC pushes higher. Frisky is one word for it. Reckless is another.

But not everyone's buying the hype. The bear flag is still very much in the room, awkwardly standing in the corner holding a sign that says "rekt." The January bear flag dumped roughly $25,000, and Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan warns the current price action looks structurally identical — like someone copy-pasting a disaster. Some analysts say new lows below $60,000 are "likely just a matter of time" — with a potential trip to the mid-$40,000 range on the table. Nothing says "bull market" quite like casually discussing whether we're going to $40K or not.

Meanwhile, Trump's "Bridge Day" deadline looms — Tuesday at 8pm Eastern — when the US threatens major infrastructure strikes on Iran if no deal is reached. Because nothing gets crypto traders more bullish than geopolitical nuclear posturing. Oil prices are already above $115/barrel, and the Strait of Hormuz situation has everyone nervous. War jitters meet inflation data this week, with PCE and CPI on deck. If oil stays at current levels, Kobeissi says CPI could climb to around 3.7% in about seven weeks. Fun times. The good kind of fun. The "your savings account is dying" kind of fun.

The Fed? Practically zero chance of rate changes at the April FOMC meeting. Markets have bigger problems to worry about — like whether we'll have an economy to interest-rate in a few weeks. But hey, at least someone's paying attention.