Figure's Tokenized Credit: This Under-the-Radar HELOC Machine Could 2x Your Portfolio

Figure Technology Solutions, the blockchain-based lending platform that went public last year, might be the most undervalued thing in crypto markets right now — and Bernstein agrees. The analysts just slapped an "Outperform" rating and a $67 price target on the stock, which is basically saying "we think this thing is about to print." The stock's been hanging around $32 lately, so yeah, that's roughly a 2x from here. Not bad for a company that processes loans on a blockchain.

In a report published Monday, Bernstein assigned Figure an "Outperform" rating and a $67 price target — nearly double the stock's recent trading level of around $32. The bullish call follows a surge in lending activity. Figure originated $1.2 billion in loans in March, up 33% from the previous month and marking the first time monthly volumes exceeded $1 billion.

March was apparently the month Figure decided to stop playing games. They originated $1.2 billion in loans — a nice 33% bump from February and the first time they broke the billion-dollar mark in a single month. For context, that's the kind of volume that makes traditional lenders nervous, especially when it's coming from a company running loans on a blockchain instead of fax machines and paper contracts.

The company primarily originates home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), which allow homeowners to borrow against their equity in the property, typically at lower interest rates than unsecured loans. It uses the Provenance blockchain to reduce friction in the loan process, which it claims makes it more efficient than traditional lenders. According to Provenance, Figure is able to shave 117 basis points per loan by transacting on the blockchain.

So here's the play: Figure does HELOCs — home equity lines of credit — which is basically letting homeowners borrow against their house without selling it. The rates are better than your typical predatory personal loan, and Figure claims its Provenance blockchain setup saves them 117 basis points per loan. For non-nerds, that's real money. Like, "we can undercut traditional lenders and still print" money.

First-quarter originations reached $2.9 billion, more than doubling from a year earlier and defying the usual seasonal slowdown in HELOC demand. The figure is now tracking roughly $12 billion in annualized loan volume.

Q1 wasn't just good — it was "we doubled year-over-year and ignored seasonal trends" good. $2.9 billion in originations, more than double what they did last year, and they're now tracking around $12 billion annually. That's not a startup anymore; that's a machine.

Figure's growth has been driven by rising consumer loan demand, an expanding partner network and the continued rollout of its blockchain-based credit infrastructure, including its YLDS stablecoin.

What's driving this? People need loans (classic), more partners are jumping on board, and Figure's been pushing its blockchain credit infrastructure — including that YLDS stablecoin. When you're tokenizing credit and running a stablecoin, you're basically trying to own the entire stack. Ambitious? Sure. Working? Apparently.

Despite improving operating performance, Figure shares have fallen more than 20% this year, reflecting broader volatility across digital asset-linked stocks and sector-specific pressures. The stock has also struggled to regain momentum following its high-profile Nasdaq market debut last September. That closely watched initial public offering valued the company at nearly $800 million.

Here's where it gets spicy: despite the operating performance looking solid, the stock is down 20% this year. Blame the broader crypto market dump, sector rotation, or whatever — digital asset-linked stocks have been getting absolutely punished. The stock also hasn't recovered from its September IPO, which valued the company at nearly $800 million. Ouch.

Bernstein's analysis valued the company at roughly 25 times its projected 2027 EBITDA — meaning the stock trades at a multiple of its expected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. This valuation sits above existing digital asset companies, reflecting what analysts describe as Figure's "structural prospects" as both a tokenization platform and a profitable lending business.

Bernstein's math puts Figure at about 25x projected 2027 EBITDA. That's a premium to other digital asset companies, and the analysts are calling it "structural prospects" — which is analyst speak for "this thing has real legs, not just pump." Figure's positioned as both a tokenization play AND a profitable lending business, which is basically the holy grail in this space.

However, risks remain. According to Bernstein, HELOC demand can be sensitive to mortgage refinancing trends, while the broader private credit market — a key pillar of Figure's growth strategy — has shown signs of increasing pressure.

But let's not go full bull without acknowledging the risks. HELOC demand gets weird when mortgage refinancing heats up — people refinance instead of getting HELOCs, and suddenly your pipeline dries up. Plus, the private credit market, which is central to Figure's growth story, has been showing cracks. Not saying it's over — just saying there's still some landmines out there.