From 20% to Near Zero: Binance.US Places Its Comeback Bet on Derivatives

Binance.US is attempting the crypto equivalent of a victory lap—backwards. Under new CEO Stephen Gregory, the U.S. arm of the exchange empire is desperately trying to reclaim market share from Coinbase and Kraken by venturing beyond vanilla spot trading into the wild world of retail derivatives and prediction markets. Because nothing says "we learned our lesson" like offering leveraged products to the degens who still hang around.

Gregory, a compliance-focused executive who took the hot seat in March, comes with a resume that reads like a tour of every crypto exchange that isn't currently on fire. He previously held leadership roles at Currency.com, Gemini, and CEX.io before succeeding Norman Reed, who now lingers in an advisory capacity like a ghost of trading past.

Meanwhile, the global Binance family has been having quite the legal odyssey. The company collected lawsuits from the SEC and Department of Justice like rare NFTs—though the SEC finally dropped its case last summer. Binance got hit with criminal charges for violating sanctions and money-transmitting laws, agreeing to fork over $4.3 billion in what U.S. authorities generously called one of the largest corporate penalties on record. Founder Changpeng "CZ" Zhao pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act, paid a $50 million fine, and stepped down from the CEO position. He was later given a get-out-of-jail-free card by former President Donald Trump. Good luck explaining that one to compliance.

Against this backdrop of regulatory fireworks, Binance.US is trying to rebuild from the ashes. At its peak in 2022, the exchange held roughly 20% of the U.S. market—a number that has since cratered to nearly zero, according to CoinDesk Indices data. For those keeping score at home, that's a decline more dramatic than most altcoin charts.

Gregory's grand plan involves expanding beyond basic spot trading into derivatives and prediction markets. "Prediction markets are super hot. Everybody's talking about that," he said, presumably while watching Polymarket volume charts with heart eyes.

The company now operates independently from its global affiliate with its own governance board and a compliance framework so robust it probably has its own compliance department. Gregory is betting that restored trust and a broader product menu will bring back the liquidity, regulatory clouds be damned. "The best customer protection is competition," Gregory said, which is certainly one way to frame the situation.

The timing question, however, is chef's kiss. Regulatory clarity in the U.S. remains somewhere between "confusing" and "nonexistent," and rivals have been busy consolidating power while Binance.US was busy being persona non grata. For now, the company is placing its chips on the idea that a wider product suite paired with a compliance-first makeover will be enough to re-enter the conversation in the world's largest crypto market. Bold strategy, Cotton.