Bitcoin's 'Historic Buy Zone' Returns as 90% of Holders Wonder If This Is Finally the Dip

Bitcoin [BTC] is going through a rough patch, with concerns around losses and potential selling pressure from major holders. But before everyone rushes to delete their trading apps, here's the silver lining: roughly 80% to 90% of invested capital is currently at a loss, which historically has been a signal that the market is entering accumulation territory.

This isn't Bitcoin's first rodeo at these levels. Similar conditions appeared in previous cycles, and each time, a recovery phase followed. High, unrealized losses typically come with peak fear and weak sentiment, but that's often when long-term value starts looking attractive. It doesn't guarantee an immediate reversal, but it does put Bitcoin in a zone that smart money tends to watch closely.

Speaking of smart money—or at least interesting money—Arkham Intelligence spotted MARA Holdings (the fourth largest BTC treasury) transferring 200 BTC worth around $13.84 million. The twist? The receiving wallet appears to be linked to selling activity. The last time MARA sent Bitcoin to this wallet was about two months ago. It's not a confirmed sale, but it's definitely not helping the vibes.

At a time when a large share of Bitcoin capital is already in the red, such moves can ramp up short-term selling fears and put additional pressure on BTC's price.

That said, not everyone's hitting the panic button. Some are labelling the current state a "compression" rather than a full market reset. While BTC is down roughly 50% from its 2025 peak, the price is still holding above $68.6K, well above its key long-term on-chain support levels.

At the time of writing, BTC was still above the Realized Price ($54.1K), LTH Realized Price ($49.2K), and Investor Price ($49.5K). So the broader cost basis of the market is still intact.

The weakness appears more visible among recent buyers, with BTC still trading below the STH Realized Price ($79.2K) and True Market Mean Price ($78.3K). This suggests that while short-term holders may be feeling the heat, the long-term support structure hasn't given in yet.

In other words: the hodlers are still hodling, and the buy-the-dip crowd might want to keep their calculators ready.