One Last Dip Before the Rip? Analyst Warns of Bitcoin's $15K Shakeout Ticket to $54K Town

Bitcoin is showing signs of being in the bear market's late stages but could see another leg lower in the coming months, according to Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform Alphractal. Because nothing says "bottom" quite like everyone's favorite cryptocurrency doing its best impression of a falling knife.

Key takeaways:

BTC may still see one last big drop before recovering, based on one sentiment indicator. The next likely downside target is near Bitcoin's realized price at $54,000. Buckle up, degens.

In a Tuesday post, Wedson said Bitcoin's 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index (TBBI), a long-term indicator that tracks multi-year cycles of fear and greed, had dropped into an extreme bearish zone below 20. Historically, such readings have reflected "late-stage fear" among traders, a phase that can still produce one final shakeout before Bitcoin begins a more durable recovery. Translation: the crowd is scared shirtless, which historically means there's probably one more rug pull before the healing begins.

In 2022, Bitcoin fell more than 20% after the indicator reached similarly depressed levels. A comparable setup also appeared before Bitcoin lost around 50% in 2018, prompting Wedson to see a similar possibility in 2026. History doesn't rhyme, it just laughs at anyone who thinks they've learned their lesson.

He warned that Bitcoin could still face "a sharp move like a –$15K shakeout" over the next six months, implying a roughly 20% decline from current levels