TAO's 0-2 at Resistance: Double Rejection Has Bears Licking Their Lips

Bittensor ($TAO) is trading at $325.1, down 3.04% on the day, after getting rejected at a multi-month descending trendline for the second time in two weeks. The daily MACD has now confirmed a bearish crossover, shifting the near-term bias toward the downside. For those keeping score at home, that's two whiffs at the $355-$371 clubhouse in as many weeks—exactly the kind of performance that makes bears start flexing their claws.

$TAO has produced two consecutive failures at the $355 to $371 resistance zone in the past two weeks. The first rejection came near $371 on March 25, following Bittensor's halving event and reports of Grayscale Investments raising its $TAO weighting to 43.06% in its AI-focused fund. The second attempt reached $355 on April 7, produced a lower high, and reversed. Both rejection points are visible as circled pivots on the daily chart, and $TAO has since retraced to $325.1 without recovering above either level. Classic double-top drama: the kind of chart pattern that has traders whispering "I told you so" in Discord servers worldwide.

The daily MACD has confirmed the setup. The MACD line has crossed below the signal, reading 19.6 against a signal of 22.0, with the histogram at -2.4. Both lines remain above zero, which limits the severity of the crossover, but the signal confirms that momentum built during March's AI-sector rally is fading. The bullish party didn't exactly end with a bang—more like a whimper and a slow walk toward the exit.

On the 4H chart, the MACD remains technically bullish, with the MACD line at 6.8 above the signal at 5.8 and a histogram of 1.0. The 4H Supertrend at $313.8 continues to act as dynamic support. However, the 4H histogram has compressed sharply from earlier sessions, and a bearish crossover on that timeframe would add meaningful confluence with the daily signal. The 4H is holding on by a thread, basically the last guy at the bar insisting he's "totally fine to drive."

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated on X that $TAO is "approaching one of those regions for dip buying in the coming weeks," framing the current pullback as "just normal price behavior" following a triple-digit monthly rally. That view supports a base case in which $297.5 holds as a staging ground, not a breakdown level. The eternal bull, as always, seeing green where others see red. Respect the conviction.

Immediate support: the 4H Supertrend at $313.8, followed by the structural demand zone at $297.5, visible on both the 4H and daily charts and flagged as a key floor during the March accumulation phase. Extended downside target: $263.7, the daily Supertrend. Previous analysis flagged a potential corrective move toward $200 if the pattern repeats from prior golden-cross fractals, though that scenario requires a sustained close below $263.7 to come into scope. $200 is the "we don't talk about that" scenario—at least for now.

Bull case: a confirmed daily close above $371 invalidates the double rejection and opens the path toward $400. Bear case: a break below $297.5 targets $263.7. Invalidation: $371. Simple math, brutal logic.

Coinglass data shows $TAO open interest has declined alongside price in recent sessions, consistent with long-side deleveraging rather than aggressive fresh short positioning. That configuration reduces the probability of a sharp squeeze near current levels and suggests the next directional move is more likely to be supply-driven than forced. No fuel for a short squeeze means this might just be a slow bleed rather than an explosive move. Less exciting, but probably more realistic.

Grayscale has also filed with the SEC to convert its Bittensor Trust into a spot ETF and increased $TAO's weighting to 43.06% in its AI fund, making it the fund's dominant holding. Neither development provides a near-term price floor, but both reduce the probability of a sustained breakdown below key support if broader risk appetite stabilises. The ETF dream is nice, but it won't stop a daily red candle. Patience is a virtue, and in crypto, it's also a requirement.

If $297.5 holds on a daily close basis, the base case is a re-test of the $355 trendline. A confirmed break below $297.5 shifts the primary target to $263.7. The script is written—now we just watch the actors perform.