Boring PCE Data? Pre-War Relic, But Bitcoin Decided to Party Anyway

February's PCE inflation data dropped today, and it's basically a snapshot from the before times—before the U.S.-Iran conflict added some spice to global markets. The numbers came in right on cue: PCE at 2.8% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, while core PCE cooled to 3% from January's 3.1%. No surprises here, which apparently was enough to get Bitcoin feeling optimistic again.

BTC is currently chilling around $71,200, climbing from an intraday low of $70,500. A recovery of about $700 won't exactly make anyone forget the all-time highs, but for a Tuesday in this market, we'll take it.

Here's the thing though: this inflation print covers February, which means it's technically the last datapoint before the geopolitical drama started. So while it's "steady" and "positive" for crypto in theory, it's also about as useful for understanding current conditions as checking the weather in a city you used to live in.

The FOMC minutes released yesterday offered some hints. The Fed is technically still open to rate cuts this year, citing the Iran war's dual threat to both inflation and employment. But the majority of Fed officials made it clear they'd happily hike rates if inflation keeps misbehaving above their 2% target. The April 29th FOMC meeting? CME FedWatch shows a 98.4% probability rates stay put.

Now tomorrow's March CPI data is where things get interesting—and by interesting, we mean potentially terrifying. Wall Street is expecting headline CPI to jump to 3.3% YoY from February's 2.4%, with core CPI at 2.7%. The consensus is calling for it to come in hot, which makes sense given oil prices have been hitting multi-year highs during the conflict.

So enjoy today's relatively calm vibes while they last. Tomorrow's inflation print will either validate the bullish thesis or remind everyone why wehodl through the volatility.