AVAX's CME-Powered Pump Hits a Seller Wall at $9.60 Because Of Course It Does

Avalanche [$AVAX] put in a respectable 13.71% gain in under 18 hours on Tuesday, April 7, climbing from $8.46 to $9.62. The move coincided with heavy spot volume, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's announcement that it would launch Avalanche Futures in May gave prices a nice boost. The broader market bounce didn't hurt either. Apparently, even CME saying "we're touching your blockchain" is enough to make degens lose their minds and buy.

However, as Coinalyze data revealed, the Open Interest increase was rather timid compared to the 13% price move. The OI trends showed the first rally to $9.6 resistance had a steeper OI rise than the second one since Monday. Meanwhile, the Spot CVD showed a much sharper uptick during the second rally. The funding rate stayed negative throughout this move, hinting at a cluster of signals that weren't quite in sync. It's like the indicators held a Zoom call and nobody muted themselves before arguing.

Put together: speculative interest during the most recent bounce to $9.62 was low, but spot conviction was firm. Yet that spot conviction, combined with rising trading volume, still wasn't enough for $AVAX to breach the $9.45-$9.60 supply zone. The supply zone said "nice try" and AVAX said "I'll be back." We believe you, buddy. We've heard that before.

On the 1-day chart, the swing structure remains bearish. The MFI is moving higher, signaling greater buying pressure and upward momentum in April, but the CMF stays below -0.05, indicating capital flows are still directed out of $AVAX. Seller dominance was evident when the $10.34 local highs weren't reclaimed during the mid-March rally. Since then, the $8.3 area has been retested and has seen a rebound. So basically, every time AVAX tries to moon, someone in a red cape shows up saying "actually, no."

So what will it take for bulls to achieve a breakout? The high-volume spike into the $9.60 supply zone screams buyer exhaustion. Buyers spent themselves trying to force a breakout, but sellers were stronger. At the time of writing, both the CMF and MFI signaled bearishness in the short-term. This aligns well with the range formation (purple) from $8.56 to $9.46. The second rejection within a few days at the range highs means the mid-range at $9 has been holding firm. That $9 level is basically AVAX's emotional support zone at this point.

Traders should be cautious of another pullback to $9 and $8.3, rather than expecting a quick breakout past $9.6 anytime soon. Warning: price may bounce. Warning: price may drop. Warning: crypto is