AVAX's 13% Pump Leaves Buyers Winded, Sellers Still Standing

Avalanche [AVAX] put on a respectable 13.71% sprint in just under 18 hours on Tuesday, 7 April, sprinting from $8.46 to $9.62. The CME Group announcing futures tied to Avalanche dropping in May gave prices a helpful nudge, and the market-wide bounce didn't hurt either. Because nothing gets degens excited like a good old-fashioned macro tailwind and the promise of more ways to get rekt.

But here's where it gets spicy. Coinalyze data showed the Open Interest hike was timid compared to the 13% price bounce. The OI trends told an interesting tale—the first rally to $9.6 resistance saw a much steeper OI rise compared to the second one since Monday. Meanwhile, the Spot CVD showed a much sharper uptick during that second rally. The funding rate had been hanging out in negative territory too. In plain English: the leverage crowd was suspiciously absent this time around, while the spot degens were actually buying. Bold strategy, cotton.

Put it all together: speculative interest during the most recent bounce to $9.62 was low, but spot belief was firm. Unfortunately for the bulls, that spot conviction combined with the trading volume surge still wasn't enough to break the $9.45-$9.60 supply zone. The supply zone stood there, arms crossed, saying "not today." And the market listened, because supply zones have that kind of authority.

On the 1-day chart, the swing structure remained stubbornly bearish. The MFI was inching higher, signaling greater buying pressure and upward momentum in April. But the CMF stayed below -0.05, showing capital flows remained directed out of AVAX. The seller dominance became crystal clear when the $10.34 local highs went unclaimed during the mid-March rally. Since then, the $8.3-area has been retested and has seen a rebound. The chart was basically giving mixed signals like a relationship that started during a bull run—some hope, but mostly trauma.

That high-volume spike into the $9.60 supply zone? It was basically a neon sign reading "buyer exhaustion." Buyers spent themselves trying to force a breakout, but the sellers were stronger. The bulls charged the castle walls, ran out of steam, and the defenders didn't even break a sweat. Classic.

At press time, both CMF and MFI were signaling bearishness in the short-term. This pairs nicely with the range formation (purple) from $8.56 to $9.46. The second rejection within just a few days at the range highs means the mid-range at $9 has been holding firm. $9 is basically the only thing standing between hope and the void. Respect.

Traders should probably brace for another pullback to $9 and $8.3, rather than expecting a quick breakout past $9.6 anytime soon. The path of least resistance is down, degens. Buckle up, or don't—AVAX will do what AVAX does regardless of your feelings about it.