XRP's Eight-Month Nap Might Be Over: RSI Yells 'Wake Up!'

XRP has been in an eight-month downtrend, but technical and onchain indicators are now whispering about a possible bottom. After half a year of what can only be described as the most boring price action in crypto history, the charts are finally showing signs of life—or at least a pulse.

The relative strength index (RSI) of the XRP/BTC ratio is sitting at 24 — the most oversold level since October 2025. For those who missed the memo, RSI below 30 is basically the crypto equivalent of your mom asking if you're eating enough vegetables: things have gotten desperate. Historically, these rock-bottom RSI readings have marked macro bottoms for the ratio, eventually sparking 65% to 345% XRP price breakouts against Bitcoin. That's not a typo, degens.

The XRP/BTC pair is currently trading within a long consolidation range that has previously acted as a strong launching pad. The last time XRP bottomed against Bitcoin in this zone was June 2025, which kicked off a 61% increase in the ratio and a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66. For the newcomers: that's the kind of move that makes altcoin traders forget about their families for weeks.

Onchain data backs the bullish bias. XRP's MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero — a level that historically aligns with accumulation zones and market bottoms. This suggests most holders are close to breakeven, reducing sell pressure and signaling downside exhaustion. Similar patterns appeared in 2021, 2022, and 2024 before major rallies. The data doesn't lie, but it does occasionally take coffee breaks.

The last time XRP's MVRV Z-score hit similar levels in late 2024, it coincided with a macro bottom at $0.30 and preceded a 500% rally to multi-year highs above $3. Meanwhile, the 0.80 MVRV pricing band — historically a cycle bottom marker — is currently at $1.14, coinciding with a 15-month low reached on Feb. 6. Those who bought at $0.30 are probably typing this from a beach right now.

These metrics suggest XRP could be undervalued and may continue recovering toward $1.70 or higher. Of course, "could" is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence—this is crypto, after all, where certainty goes to die.

For XRP/USD, the key is holding the $1.25-$1.30 support zone. Trader ChiefraT noted on X that XRP has been sustaining this major support since early February, adding that if it holds, a short-term bounce toward $1.45 can't be ruled out. That's not a guarantee, but it's also not nothing.

The importance of this zone is reinforced by cost basis data: nearly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price level. That's a lot of people with skin in the game, ready to defend their turf like territorial gremlins at a support level.

Below that, the next defense is the $1.15 demand zone where the 200-week simple moving average sits. If XRP/USD drops below this level, it could be in free-fall toward the bear flag's measured target of $0.80 — roughly 41% below current prices. Nobody wants to see that chart, unless you're a short seller, in which case you're probably already celebrating.

Holding $1.27-$1.30 would be a sign of strength, with bulls needing to push the pair toward the $1.61 range high to regain control. The path is clear, the levels are defined, and the only thing left is for XRP to actually do something. Anything. Please.