Bitcoin Literally Just Shows Up, Prices Still Go Up After Inflation Data Disappoints

Picture this absolutely devastating scene: Bitcoin lounging around $72,000 like it's getting paid to do nothing. Because technically, it is. Then Friday's Consumer Price Index report dropped and suddenly everyone's spreadsheets mattered again.

Core CPI managed to squeeze out just 0.2% growth in March when economists were hoping for a more robust 0.3%. A whiff! A complete airball! And yet somehow markets interpreted "missing expectations" as "please, sir, may I have some more gains?" The crowd went wild — metaphorically.

Bitcoin shuffled its way up to roughly $72,400 in the minutes following the data release. Not because of any groundbreaking adoption news or institutional buying spree, mind you. Just vibes. Pure, uncut vibes from a softer-than-expected inflation print.

Headline CPI hit 0.9%, dead center on what the smartypants economists predicted. But here's where things get spicy: that headline came with a fine print situation. Energy costs decided to go absolutely feral thanks to the ongoing Iran conflict drama, yanking overall inflation higher while core prices quietly stayed chill.

Year-over-year CPI landed at 3.3%, matching forecasts perfectly while somehow forgetting to mention it jumped from February's sleepy 2.4%. Core CPI on an annual basis came in at 2.6% versus the expected 2.7% and last month's 2.5%. Inflation is healing, except when it isn't.

U.S. stock index futures also posted modest gains, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining a Whole 0.3%. Riveting stuff. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield sat there looking stable at 4.29%, basically the financial equivalent of a houseplant that hasn't died yet.

Markets have been having an absolute crisis about Fed rate expectations lately. What started as the party assuming multiple rate cuts in 2024 somehow transformed into pricing in hikes — or just vibes of no cuts at all — because oil prices decided geopolitical tensions in the Middle East make for great price action.

Fed funds futures are currently pricing in roughly a 99% probability the Fed does absolutely nothing at its late-April meeting and a 97% chance of the same ho-hum outcome in mid-June. The bar for excitement has officially been set underground.