Diplomacy Pumps: BTC Surges 4.9% on Iran Ceasefire as Short Sellers Learn a Costly Lesson in Geopolitics

Bitcoin climbed to a three-week high of $72,738 on April 8, settling around $71,879 as markets reacted to a US-Iran agreement for a two-week ceasefire. The move caught bears off guard, but chart watchers aren't ready to call a bottom yet.

All four exponential moving averages remain overhead, creating a technical ceiling. The 20-day EMA at $69,070 has been reclaimed, but the 50-day ($70,502), 100-day ($75,587), and 200-day ($83,862) still sit above price. The Bull Market Support Band between $79,289 and $79,673 represents the zone where the daily structure would finally flip bullish.

The rally built a series of higher lows from February's $54,000 bottom through March, but every attempt to push higher has stalled before reaching the next EMA. Today's candle briefly tested $72,113 before pulling back.

A sustained close above the 50-day would mark the first EMA reclaim since January, but the real test waits at the 100-day around $75,587—roughly 5% above current levels.

Key Levels:

• 20-day EMA: $69,070
• 50-day EMA: $70,502
• 100-day EMA: $75,587
• Bull Market Support Band: $79,289–$79,673
• 200-day EMA: $83,862

President Trump suspended bombing on Iran, sending crude oil lower and lifting risk assets broadly. Bitcoin gained 4.9% while Ether surged 7.4% to $2,273.

ETF flows tell an encouraging story. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $471.3 million in net inflows Monday, building on $22.3 million the prior week. That reverses roughly $300 million in outflows from the week before that. March finished with approximately $1.3 billion in total net inflows, ending a four-month streak of redemptions that began in November. Institutional selling pressure is easing, but conviction buying hasn't returned at scale.

Derivatives data confirms the short squeeze. Volume jumped 45.88% to $81.57 billion while open interest climbed 5.18% to $51.40 billion. Options volume exploded 72.16% to $6.21 billion with options OI up 4.50% to $34.17 billion. The 24-hour long/short ratio sits at 1.0717, leaning slightly long.

Short sellers absorbed the brunt of the pain. Over 24 hours, shorts lost $215.08 million