XRP Fails to Catch a Break Above $1.40, Retreats as Geopolitical Boogeymen Spook Retail

Ripple ($XRP) is having a rough couple of days, currently lounging around $1.33 after touching a weekly high of $1.40 on Thursday. The remittance token is keeping pace with the broader crypto market, which seems to have trust issues with the US-Iran ceasefire deal—technically still standing, but Iran's blocking the Strait of Hormuz like a roommate who won't chip in for WiFi, and President Trump has reminded everyone that strikes will continue if talks go nowhere. Crypto sentiment has been taking punches since war broke out in late February. The Fear & Greed Index confirms we're deep in trauma territory—diving to 14 (extreme fear, for those scoring at home) Thursday, down from 17 the day before. Nobody's rushing to buy the dip because buying the dip requires believing in a bottom, and that's a leap of faith many retail traders simply aren't ready to make.

$XRP futures open interest dropped to $2.38 billion Thursday from $2.50 billion the previous day. Retail has basically ghosted the derivatives market harder than a DeFi founder after a rug pull. If this trend of absent interest continues, $XRP probably stays locked in its downtrend with $1.30 as the next cozy stop on the way down.

$XRP is chilling around $1.33 with downside pressure that just won't quit. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs sitting at $1.42, $1.58, and $1.83 respectively continue to hang overhead like disappointed parents, keeping the bigger picture bearish despite occasional bounce attempts. RSI is hovering near 44 on the daily—modestly negative, not quite oversold enough to trigger the "time to ape in" crowd. MACD sits just above zero, showing weak recovery attempts that keep running into a ceiling like a hamster on a wheel going nowhere.

First resistance lurks at the 50-day EMA near $1.42. Above that, the 100-day EMA around $1.58 and the descending trendline break zone near $1.73 create a layered wall of worry for anyone feeling bullish. The 200-day EMA at $1.83 caps the bigger picture like a glass ceiling at a crypto startup. On the support side, recent swing lows at $1.30 and $1.28 offer floors, though rallies will probably fade until buyers can actually hold a daily close above that first resistance cluster—and that's a big "if" given the