BCH Bulls Just Can't Catch a Break—$406 Target Emerges as Range Trading Gets Stale

Bitcoin Cash [BCH] has been having a rough time lately. The coin was down by less than 1% over the past week and shed only 1.25% over the past month. Meanwhile, Bitcoin [BTC] decided to rally 7.5% in a week, leaving BCH in the dust with just over 1% gains in 30 days. While BCH holders were busy staring at their screens hoping for a miracle, BTC was off having the time of its life. This relative weakness signals a lack of market conviction, though things look relatively calm on the surface. But April's price action tells a different story—one side has been clearly winning the battle. Spoiler: it's the bears, and they're not sharing their lunch money.

Since February 2024, Bitcoin Cash has been trapped in a range (purple) between $272 and $685. The altcoin has attempted to reach the range highs three times since December 2024 and failed each time. If BCH were a prisoner, this range would be its cell, and those walls keep bouncing it back to the middle. In 2025, the mid-range support at $478 held strong multiple times before being tested as resistance over the past month. The failure to break beyond this level during mid-March's crypto rally confirmed bears were running the show. At time of writing, the $443 low from the October crash was being retested as resistance. Further losses likely loom in the coming months. Long-term investors may want to wait for a drop below $300 before looking to buy BCH. Patience is a virtue, and apparently, so is having BCH bagholders.

The 4-hour chart revealed a bearish swing structure. The short-term range between $448 and $484 was breached at the start of April, with range lows now being retested as resistance. Using the H4 swing move downward, a set of Fibonacci retracement levels (cyan) was plotted. The 50% level at $449.2 has been tested, and the price was beginning to fall lower from there. Fibonacci strikes again, like that friend who always tells you exactly where the floor is about to drop. A bounce toward $455-$465 is possible, but the directional trend remains bearish. Bitcoin Cash traders should prepare for further price drops in the coming weeks. Fibonacci extension levels suggest $406 and $385 as the next bearish price targets. Buckle up, degens.