Market Miraculously Recovers from Mild Case of Geopolitical Hysteria (Cue the Victory Lap and Questionable Memes)

Wall Street dusted off its lucky socks and re-entered the ring after March’s beatdown, with three surprisingly coherent signals flashing green—like a traffic light operated by degen traders on espresso. The S&P 500 just notched its longest win streak since October 2025, climbing 8% from its March 30 low. That’s $4.5 trillion in market cap resurrected faster than a rug-pull project with a new whitepaper. Suddenly, portfolio managers are smiling again—though we’re not sure if it’s confidence or just Botox.

Market breadth, that mystical beast traders cite when they need to sound smart at dinner parties, is finally waking up from its coma. In the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), home of tech’s elite and occasional meme interlopers, 65% of stocks now trade above their 10-day moving averages. That’s a 40-point leap in just five sessions—the sharpest spike since November and faster than a Solana validator during a meme coin frenzy. Back in mid-March, only 12% of stocks cleared that bar, the weakest showing in six months and roughly as encouraging as a “do not resuscitate” order.

But wait—there’s more! The rally isn’t just a parade of Magnificent Seven mascots on a joyride. Over 70% of stocks in both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have also reclaimed their 10-day averages. That’s right: actual breadth, not just a trillion-dollar bet on one AI narrative. Historically, when the Nasdaq 100 bounces this hard, it goes on to gain 80% of the time over the next 12 months. Statistically speaking, the odds are better than your average shitcoin surviving a bear market.

Insiders Are Buying (And Not Just Lambo Payments)

Corporate execs, often suspected of valuing stock options over moral ones, have gone full patriot mode—buying shares like they actually believe the press releases they sign. In March, 26.4% of US public companies saw net insider purchases, the highest share in five months. That’s up from 20.9% in February and comfortably above the 10-year average of 23.5%. Second straight month of rising insider love—call it a trend or call it desperation, but either way, it’s bullish. “Executives stepped in to buy their own stock after the pullback,” noted The Kobeissi Letter, “a rare display of faith not seen since pre-SBF FTX.”

But as always, energy’s the weird uncle at the family reunion. There, the share of companies with net insider buying dropped 1.6 points to 17.5%, suggesting oil barons don’t think the Iran-driven price spike is sticking around. Translation: they’re booking profits, not dreams. Either they’re cynics, or they know something we don’t—possibly both.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who’s been bullish since the Cretaceous period, says the market has bottomed and the S&P 500 could hit 7,300 this year. That’s a juicy upside from here and would make a lot of over-leveraged theses look genius in hindsight. He points to resilience during peak geopolitical chaos—stocks rose while oil surged, like a degen shrugging off a margin call. Whether this turns into a full-blown recovery or just a dead cat bounce with better PR depends on whether the ceasefire holds and oil-driven inflation doesn’t ruin everyone’s inflation storylines. For now,