Bitcoin Hits $73K on Ceasefire Hype—But Coinbase's Duong Says Pump the Brakes

Bitcoin climbed to $73,085 on Thursday, up over 3% in 24 hours, as risk-on sentiment flooded markets after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Coinbase Global Head of Investment Research David Duong, however, isn't popping champagne just yet.

According to Duong, the two-week truce gave markets a "relief valve," not a full reset. And while oil retreated to the low $90s, he cautions that underlying war-driven constraints haven't vanished.

Case in point: the Strait of Hormuz isn't exactly open for business. Just one oil tanker has transited the waterway in the past 24 hours—two days into Trump's ceasefire, whose premise was Iran reopening the strait. ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber put it bluntly: the strait "is not open," with 180 oil tankers currently stranded.

Inflation data didn't help either. Friday's CPI report showed gasoline prices surged 21.2% in March—the largest monthly jump since the Bureau of Labor Statistics started tracking in 1967. Headline CPI climbed to 3.3% year over year, up from 2.4% in February. Core CPI came in softer at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, both below expectations.

On the labor side, March nonfarm payrolls crushed estimates at 178,000 versus the 65,000 consensus—nearly triple. But participation stayed sluggish at 61.9%, and wage growth slowed to 3.5% YoY. Prior prints have also been consistently revised downward.

This puts the Fed in an uncomfortable middle ground. Growth looks softer than headline numbers suggest, but not weak enough to justify imminent cuts while war-driven inflation risks linger.

Duong flagged $84 as the key oil level to watch. A sustained break below that threshold would signal fading inflation pressure and boost odds of a quicker resolution. Hold above $100, though, and markets may start pricing a longer conflict—and renewed pressure on risk assets, BTC included.

Friday's peace talks between the US and Iran will determine whether this relief rally extends or reverses. Buckle up.