Solana's Coiling for Another Tumble—$52 or Bust, Traders Warn

Solana (SOL) has bounced back above $85 on Friday morning, recovering some ground after Wednesday's rally. But don't pop the champagne just yet—the token remains trapped below a critical SMA level that could send it tumbling further.

According to crypto.news data, SOL climbed 4.5% to hit $85.2 intraday before settling around $83. The broader market recovery, with Bitcoin reclaiming $73,000 territory, helped the altcoin stage a modest comeback after dropping from its Wednesday peak.

The problem? Solana keeps whiffing on reclaiming the 50-day SMA—and that's historically been a bad omen.

Since October 2023, every time SOL has dropped below this key moving average, significant bearish pressure has followed. The daily chart shows Solana's been range-bound between $76 and $92 since February, and it's recently drifted toward the lower end of that band.

Traders have noticed a three-step cycle playing out whenever Solana prepares for its next leg down:

First, SOL reclaims the 50-day SMA. Then it plummets back below it, losing previous support levels. Finally, it enters a consolidation trap—chilling sideways in a tight range before the final breakdown kicks in.

This pattern materialized in November and again in January, both times followed by aggressive sell-offs and fresh local bottoms.

The most recent chapter: SOL surged to $97 in mid-March, then slid into its current downtrend with lower highs and lower highs—classic bearish structure. It's now stuck in step two of the cycle, hovering between $79 and $81 while the 50-day SMA lurks around $86.

If history rhymes and Solana can't reclaim that $86 level, traders expect a swift drop to $52—a target derived from averaging the percentage declines seen during previous cycle breakdowns.