Solana's Three-Step Program for a Date With $52

Solana has bounced back above $85 on Friday morning, retracing some losses after Wednesday's rally. But it still sits below a key SMA level, putting it at risk of moving to its next leg lower in the coming sessions.

Solana rose 4.5% to hit $85.2 intraday before stabilizing around $83. The broader market recovery, with Bitcoin climbing above $73,000, helped the altcoin recover some ground after dropping from Wednesday's highs.

Despite the bounce, Solana remains at risk of further downside. It failed to reclaim a key SMA level, which historically precedes strong selloffs.

The daily chart shows Solana trading within a $76 to $92 range since February. Recently, it's moved to the lower end of this range, falling below the 50-day SMA — something that's been followed by significant bearish pressure since October 2023.

Solana has been repeating a three-step cycle every time it prepares to transition lower. First, it reclaims the 50-day SMA. Then it rapidly falls back below it, losing previous high support. Finally, it enters a consolidation trap — moving sideways in a tight range before the breakdown begins.

This pattern formed in November last year and again in early January, each time followed by a strong selloff that established a new local bottom.

Most recently, Solana moved above the key resistance in mid-March, surging to $97. It's since been on a downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs. For the past couple of days, it's been stuck in the second step of the current cycle, hovering between $79 and $81 below the 50-day SMA around $86.

If this pattern holds, the sideways movement isn't stabilization — it's coiling before the next leg down. If Solana fails to reclaim the $86 level in the coming sessions, it risks a rapid decline toward $52, calculated from the average percentage drop seen during previous cycles.