Clarity Act Faces Worse Odds Than aShitcoin with No utility: 30% Chance Has Crypto Industry Diamond-Handing Its Nerves

Wintermute's head of policy Ron Hammond isn't feeling particularly bullish about the Clarity Act's chances this year—giving it a cool 30% odds despite some momentum building in Washington. Apparently, unlike meme coin traders, Hammond isn't into risk-on assets. At least not when it comes to predicting regulatory outcomes that move slower than a blockchain during a gas war.

Why the pessimism? According to Hammond, the legislative process is advancing, but unevenly—and banks remain the biggest obstacle, particularly when it comes to the sticky question of whether stablecoins should offer yield. It seems the traditional finance bros haven't gotten the memo that the future of money doesn't include 0.5% APY on your checking account. Banks, it turns out, have all the flexibility of a smart contract that nobody audited properly before deployment.

"There have been attempts from a number of sides: Coinbase, the White House, the bill's drafters, to find a solution," Hammond said. "But at