DYOR on Explosives: Iran's $7.3B Bitcoin Toll Plan Meets Reality

Iran's mines scattered across the Strait of Hormuz are now preventing the country from widening access to the waterway, as Tehran cannot account for where all of them ended up, US officials say. The revelation comes as senior delegations from both countries are set to meet in Islamabad for negotiations that will test whether any truce can survive.

Iran planted these explosive souvenirs using small boats after US and Israel launched strikes on February 28. US officials noted many mines may have been placed without recorded coordinates or in ways that allowed them to drift. The haphazard placement created a problem Tehran did not anticipate.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled that Tehran would allow vessels through the waterway, but "with due consideration of technical limitations." American officials said that phrase referred directly to Iran's inability to find or clear its own ordnance.

Since the ceasefire began Tuesday evening, April 7, only 19 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz. Just 4 were energy tankers carrying crude, gas, or chemicals. The other 15 were bulk carriers or container ships transporting dry cargo.

This directly undermines the toll system Iran announced. Under that framework, laden tankers must email cargo details to Iranian authorities and then pay $1 per barrel of oil in Bitcoin within seconds. The system was designed to bypass sanctions.

At pre-war traffic of roughly 20 million barrels per day, this fee structure could generate approximately $7.3 billion annually. However, with uncharted mines still drifting through the strait, the toll's revenue potential is largely theoretical for now.

Senior delegations from both countries have arrived in Islamabad for ceasefire talks. Vice President JD Vance leads the US team alongside Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Meanwhile, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Araghchi head Iran's delegation.

President Trump has demanded the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the strait as a condition for the ceasefire to hold. Yet neither side possesses mine-clearing capabilities. The US military lacks robust mine removal capabilities, relying on littoral combat ships equipped with mine sweeping capabilities. Iran also does not have the capability of quickly removing mines, even the ones it planted.

The mine problem feeds into a broader economic fallout. The Strait's closure has also disrupted global fertilizer and aluminum supply chains, amplifying the damage well beyond oil prices.

Whether Islamabad produces a framework for sustained mine clearance and verified strait reopening will determine whether the ceasefire survives beyond its April 22 expiration.