Patience, Young HODLer: Bitcoin's $100K Date Pushed to Late 2026 After a Detour Through $38K

TradingShot just told Bitcoin holders to buckle up — the $100,000 party got postponed, and there's gonna be some pain before the gains. Pour yourself another coffee, maybe two.

In a TradingView post dated April 10, the analyst laid out a rather gloomy picture: Bitcoin remains firmly in a bearish phase despite a modest recovery following recent macro developments. The asset has been consolidating for about two months since its February low, but the rebound is weak, failing to challenge prior highs and reinforcing a broader downtrend. Nothing says "bull market" quite like sideways action that makes watching paint dry look thrilling.

The analysis places the current phase within a six-month bear cycle that could stretch another six months. Using a Fibonacci Channel model and patterns from the 2018 and 2022 cycles — both of which saw deep corrections — the current cycle could lead to a total drawdown of around 70% before finding a bottom. For those keeping score at home, that's the kind of dip that makes your portfolio look like it just went through a divorce.

Key technical levels to watch include a potential interim low near $47,000, aligned with the 350-week moving average, and a deeper downside target around $38,000 near the 500-week moving average. These levels are consistent with prior cycle bottoms, where long-term moving averages acted as critical support zones. Think of them as the floor beneath the floor — the basement of the basement.

After this corrective phase, the structure points to a gradual recovery, with Bitcoin rebuilding momentum over time, reclaiming key resistance levels, and eventually pushing toward six figures. Under this outlook, the $100,000 target is likely part of a longer recovery cycle, with late 2026 to early 2027 as the most probable window if historical trends and technical signals hold. So yeah, your kids might be walking before Bitcoin hits six figures. Sleep well.

As for the here and now, Bitcoin is continuing its modest rebound. By press time, the cryptocurrency was valued at $72,675, gaining about 0.7% in the past 24 hours, while on the weekly timeline, the asset is up over 8%. Overall, the world's largest cryptocurrency has shown resilience this week, rising from lows near $68,000 earlier in April. On Friday, April 10, $BTC reached an intraday high of approximately $73,440 before settling around the $72,000 range. Small wins, people. Small wins.

Technically, Bitcoin is hovering just below a key resistance zone around $73,000 and $73,100. A clean breakout above this level could open the door to further gains toward $76,000 or higher in the short term, while support sits near $70,000 and $71,000. It's basically doing that thing where you hover at the door of the party, trying to decide if you really want to go in.

The rebound can be attributed to strong inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded significant net inflows earlier in the week, with one session seeing nearly $471 million — the highest daily total since February. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity Investments' offering led the charge, signaling continued institutional appetite even amid price consolidation. A reported U.S.–Iran ceasefire announcement also provided a tailwind for risk assets, helping $BTC recover from sub-$69,000 levels. Nothing says "peace in the Middle East" quite like a nice fat ETF inflow to lift spirits.