Inflation's Back, Says Nobody: Bitcoin Surges to $76K as PPI Misses the Drama

Bitcoin climbed to levels not seen since early February, hitting monthly highs above $76,000 on Tuesday after US inflation data failed to deliver the dramatic print markets were bracing for. Spoiler alert: the drama was decidedly off-brand.

The March Producer Price Index came in below expectations despite ongoing US-Iran tensions. Markets had priced in a 4.7% year-on-year increase with a 1.1% month-on-month jump—but the actual print landed at just 0.5% monthly and 4.0% annually. Somewhere, a consensus trade cried itself to sleep.

"We are now officially seeing inflation metrics in the US that are at 4% or higher," the Kobeissi Letter noted on X. "Inflation is back." The internet's favorite inflation truthers wasted no time firing up the doom scroll.

That reaction says more about market paranoia than actual price action. Despite the headline number, traders remained skeptical. Interest-rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve stayed firmly anchored to late next year. The Fed: coming to a rate cut near you, probably, maybe, we'll see.

On-chain data told an interesting story. The move past $75,000 triggered a wave of short liquidations, according to CryptoReviewing, cofounder of Wealth Capital. Traders had been positioned for exactly this kind of short squeeze. Being right in a bear market feels great until the rug pulls your positions sideways.

Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, pointed out that Bitcoin's current price action mirrors 2022 patterns. He's watching the 21-week moving average around $78,300 as a critical resistance level. History doesn't repeat, but it definitely rhymes, and sometimes it ghostwrites your liquidation emails.

"A rejection from that level would send the Weekly RSI back below the R/S flip line at 41, and send BTC to the next leg down," Alan warned. Words to file under "things that keep traders awake at 3 AM."

If the US passes the CLARITY Act and the Iran conflict resolves, Bitcoin could revisit its yearly open near $87,500. That's the kind of scenario that makes you check your position size twice and whisper sweet nothings to your tradingview alerts.