Fed's Diamond Hands: Rates Locked at 3.75% as Powell Says 'Not Until I See Those Charts'

The Federal Reserve dropped minutes from its February and March discount rate meetings, confirming all 12 Reserve Banks voted to keep the primary credit rate at 3.75%. The meetings took place on February 9 and March 18, 2026. Neither session showed any appetite for a change. The Fed is giving off serious "I said what I said" energy—no rate cuts, no drama, just vibes at 3.75%.

At the March 18 joint meeting with the FOMC, officials held the federal funds target range steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Board also kept interest on reserve balances at 3.65%. For those keeping score at home, that's a whole lot of nothing changing. Apparently the Fed's strategy is "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" meets "we're definitely not giving you cheap money back yet."

Directors from Federal Reserve Banks reported generally stable economic conditions. Labor markets showed limited hiring, low turnover, and modest wage growth. Several districts noted trouble filling specialized roles, especially in healthcare. Turns out finding people who know how to do things nobody wants to learn is still annoyingly difficult. Classic supply-side problem.

Directors also pointed to sustained business investment in technology and AI to improve efficiency. Though AI's direct impact on employment remains limited—for now. Right, because Skynet definitely starts by making spreadsheets slightly faster before going full Judgment Day. Very reassuring.

Tariff-related price pressures have eased compared to earlier assessments. But directors flagged rising nonlabor costs in healthcare and energy. So you can buy your flat-screen TVs a bit cheaper, but your hospital visit and heating bill are absolutely not getting the memo.

The Board renewed existing formulas for secondary and seasonal credit programs. The secondary rate stays at 4.25%, or 50 basis points above primary credit. For the uninitiated, that's the Fed's way of saying "here's a slightly worse rate if you really need it, but we're not making it easy."

Chair Jerome Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and all present governors voted unanimously at both meetings. Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran missed the February session but showed up in March. Waller and Miran out here doing the crypto equivalent of "I'll be there for the second half, I was mining a block."

The hold signals the Fed isn't rushing to ease, even as traders price in cuts for later this year. Next up: watching inflation data for clues on what the FOMC does next. Spoiler: they're definitely not going to tell you anything useful, but at least they're consistent about it.