Marmot's Bear Market Trilogy: Act III Is Called 'Where's the Actual Bottom?'

While Bitcoin maximalists argue the bottom is already in and moon missions are imminent, analyst Marmot is serving up a different kind of hopium—cold, hard bearishness. According to his X post, Bitcoin hasn't come close to finding its true floor, and could plunge below $45,000 before any sustainable recovery gets the memo. Because nothing says "diamond hands" quite like watching your portfolio get absolutely demolished while influencers tell you to buy the dip.

Marmot's bear case leans heavily on history, drawing parallels between the current market and the 2022 cycle. Bitcoin has already shed over 40% from its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. Since that peak, the flagship asset has traced a grim downward path, punctuated by brief rallies that Marmot generously calls "fake recoveries." These pumps briefly诱多愚弄投资者 before prices abruptly reverse, leaving the overconfident holding bags. Classic rug pull theater, but make it macroeconomic.

To add structure to the pain, Marmot has mapped the current bear market into three phases. Phase one wrapped after a 54%+ crash, leaving BTC trading around $74,000. Now comes phase two: a volatile playground of bull traps, fakeouts, and repeated wicka-wicka that wipe out short-term traders. The most recent example? A brief surge above $73,000 following a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, which promptly faded back toward $71,000 before recovering to $74,000 at time of writing. Nothing like geopolitical news being used as an excuse to liquidate degens on both sides.

As successive traps squeeze both longs and shorts, Marmot believes the market is rolling into phase three—the final descent where Bitcoin's "real" bottom is expected to materialize. Think of it as the part of the horror movie where everyone thinks they're safe, and then the killer comes back for one last jump scare.

On his chart, Marmot plots the bottom below $43,700. From current prices near $74,000, that's a potential 40%+ decline and over 65% from ATH. Before that sweet bottom arrives, he expects one final shakeout crash to eliminate remaining participants. Because apparently the market hasn't collected enough tears yet.

The pattern suggests BTC might first dip to $45,500, stage a false recovery, then bottom out before eventually reclaiming $45,000 as the new bullish era kicks off. Marmot's chart indicates the current cycle is almost identically repeating 2022's playbook, with both bear and bull traps already executed as the market grinds toward its next low. If you've seen this movie before, buckle up—it's basically a remake with worse special effects.

BTC trades at $74,371 on the 1D chart.