S&P 500 Creeps Toward All-Time High Like a Degen Approaching a Margin Call

The S&P 500 is now within 0.5% of its January 2026 peak of 7,022—the kind of proximity that makes bulls salivate and bears file for unemployment. After a correction that felt like a three-act tragedy, equities have staged a comeback so dramatic it deserves its own Netflix docuseries.

Since March 30, the index has tacked on nearly $6 trillion in market cap, which breaks down to about $550 billion per trading day over 10 straight green candles. That’s not just institutional money rotating back in—that’s FOMO with a Bloomberg terminal and a caffeine addiction. Tuesday added another bullish candlestick, because apparently, the market forgot how to panic.

What’s wild is that this rally kicked off while the U.S. and Iran were trading geopolitical shade like passive-aggressive exes. A two-week ceasefire was agreed upon, but failed negotiations and a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz kept the tension simmering. Yet markets shrugged, as if to say, “Cool, cool—just another Tuesday in the global risk-o-meter.” Resilience? Or just confirmation that traders have stopped reading the news?

Citadel Securities execs are now calling for more upside in both stocks and bonds, claiming the worst-case tail risk from the Iran flare-up has been “substantially truncated.” Translation: the bomb scare wasn’t a bomb. Meanwhile, Bitmine’s Tom Lee—who once called a bottom based on whale sightings—declared the low is in and sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,300 this year. That’s not just optimism; that’s degen-level confidence with a Bloomberg subscription.

Hedge funds, meanwhile, are frantically covering shorts like they just realized they’re on the wrong side of a meme stock squeeze. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that in just five trading days, short exposure to U.S. ETFs plunged from a May 2025 high to below the 97th percentile of historical readings. That’s not a unwind—that’s a full-blown capitulation, complete with margin clerks sweating through their shirts.

Capital is flooding back into AI names so fast it’s making Nvidia’s quarterly guidance look like a conservative forecast. After the correction, Nvidia and Apple were trading at Forward P/Es nearly half of Costco and Walmart’s. Nothing says “value” like paying less for a company building the future than one that sells toilet paper and Doritos.

But let’s not pretend this rally hasn’t stretched valuations into meme territory. The Buffett Indicator has soared to 232.6%, a new all-time high and a number that would make even a 2000-era dot-com shill pause. For context, the Dot-Com Bubble peaked at 162.6%, and the 2021 high was 218.7%. We’ve now surged 163.6 percentage points since the post-GFC low—more than tripling the ratio. At this point, the market isn’t expensive; it’s a Lambo-index futures contract.

U.S. equities are now in uncharted waters, floating atop a sea of liquidity and collective denial. Momentum is still firmly bullish, and a fresh record high is within sight—like a degen staring down a 100x moonshot. But with valuations this stretched, the only thing more dangerous than holding might be shorting. The music’s still playing. Just don’t be the one holding the bag when it stops.