XRP's Third Trendline Tryst: Will History Actually Rhyme This Time?

XRP appears to be attempting the same downward-sloping trendline retest pattern that preceded its early March surge. The token has been having a rough time since pulling back from the March 17 high of $1.60, which it hit during the broader market rebound as the U.S.-Iran conflict unfolded. Since that peak, XRP has shed over 16%, currently sitting at $1.33. Apparently, even the most bullish XRP Army soldiers are taking a tactical retreat these days.

However, trader Swarmik, who previously profited from an XRP short position earlier this month, has flagged a familiar pattern—a sloping trendline retest that preceded March's rally. Apparently, he's that friend who says "I told you so" but actually has the charts to back it up.

Key Points

XRP has plunged more than 16% from the March 17 high of $1.60 during the ongoing correction. This compounds the downtrend that began in October 2025, with XRP now down 63% from its July 2025 all-time high. Since mid-February, XRP has traded below a downward-sloping trendline serving as resistance. Before rallying to the March high, it retested this trendline three times. For those keeping score at home, that's a lot of "almost but not quite" moments.

This month, XRP has already retested the trendline resistance twice, now eyeing a third approach. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again—and apparently for XRP, that means a third date with the same trendline.

XRP Pulls Back After March Peak

Swarmik shared the analysis as an update to a previous disclosure confirming profits from last month's XRP short position. At the time of that earlier disclosure, XRP had dropped 17% since he entered the short. Meanwhile, everyone who bought the dip is still waiting for their Lambo.

This time, however, Swarmik noted that following the initial drop, price has begun consolidating on medium timeframes. Translation: XRP is taking a breather before deciding whether to break hearts or break records.

For context, he entered his short as XRP rallied alongside the market to the March 17 peak of $1.60. After this peak, it experienced a massive pullback, falling 20% to $1.27 by April 5. Nothing says "bull market" like a 20% drop in under three weeks.

Price Eyes Third Trendline Retest

While price has recovered from the early-April low, XRP still trades around $1.33, down 16.8% from the March 17 peak. For those doing the math, that's roughly one expensive lesson in "don't FOMO at $1.60."

According to Swarmik, XRP has started consolidating, but there's nothing alarming—for now. He emphasized observing an interesting chart pattern. Said pattern being XRP's apparent commitment to testing resistance like it's speed dating for chart levels.

Specifically, he pointed to a downward-sloping trendline acting as resistance for XRP since it crashed from the $1.67 high on February 15. During the latest recovery push starting after the April 5 low of $1.27, XRP has retested this trendline twice. Apparently, XRP really misses this trendline and keeps sliding into its DMs.

The first retest occurred when price hit $1.39 on April 7, followed by a pullback. The second retest played out as XRP recently rose to $1.375 over the weekend. Both attempts faced resistance at the trendline and failed to break through. Talk about a trendline that's playing hard to get.

Swarmik anticipates a third attempt to retest the same trendline, though he believes XRP could face another roadblock and pull back. However,