Bitcoin Holds $78K as US-Iran Hormuz Standoff Sends Oil Above $100 Barrel CATEGORY: Industry News

Bitcoin clung to the $78,000 neighborhood on Friday as crude breached the century mark, testing whether the flagship digital asset could keep its April momentum alive while the US-Iran standoff kept energy traders sweating through their spreadsheets. The tension picked up after President Donald Trump cranked up the volume on the Strait of Hormuz, casually reminding everyone that the US Navy runs the show and that no tanker slips through without Washington's blessing. Before hostilities heated up, roughly 20 million barrels of oil and related products cruised through that waterway daily. Brent crude shuffled up to around $107 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate lounged near $97, tracking toward a weekly gain exceeding 17% as peace talks stalled, tankers got grabbed, and the blockade deepened supply jitters. Bitcoin's April sprint has stretched roughly 15%, crawling back to $78,300 after briefly poking above $79,000, even as US equities slipped, the dollar bulged up, and traders repriced the odds that elevated oil could keep inflation uncomfortably warm heading into the Fed's next powwow.

The real oomph behind Bitcoin's surge came from derivatives rather than earnest spot buyers. CryptoQuant data showed that Bitcoin's Thursday push from $76,351 to $79,447 was mostly futures flapping their wings, with open interest ballooning from around $24.88 billion to nearly $28 billion. The move triggered a mass eviction of bearish positions: Bitcoin short liquidations hit roughly $607.9 million while Ethereum short liquidations stacked up to about $581 million. Across both assets, short liquidations combined for nearly $1.19 billion. Bitcoin long liquidations came in around $12.8 million while Ether long liquidations touched roughly $98.5 million, totaling roughly $111.4 million on the long side. That lopsided bloodbath explains the velocity of the move. Alphractal data had spotted the pressure building beforehand: Bitcoin perpetual futures funding stayed negative on a 30-day average for 46 consecutive days while open interest climbed about 12% over that stretch, meaning bears were paying rent to keep their positions alive, a crowded trade that collapses spectacularly when price pivots.

Meanwhile, options players gave Bitcoin room to breathe without frantically chasing upside that usually signals a market getting ahead of itself. Greeks.live data showed that 109,000 Bitcoin options expired Friday with a put-call ratio of 0.93, a max pain level of $72,000, and a notional value of $8.55 billion. Bitcoin's implied volatility continued dropping across major maturities, with several tenors slipping 1 to 2 percentage points and dipping below 40%. Skew metrics also pulled back, suggesting the rebound wasn't primarily fueled by panic buying of call options. That leaves Bitcoin in a steadier spot than the size of the short squeeze might imply. Traders aren't ignoring the move, but they're not paying steep premiums for calls either. Essentially, the options market is leaving the door ajar for continuation while still pricing in the risk that oil, the dollar, and Fed expectations can crash the party.

For Bitcoin, oil-driven inflation creates a thorny landscape. Higher crude supports the case for owning assets outside the fiat playground, especially if inflation creeps up while central banks hold off on tightening. At the same time, an oil-fueled inflation shock can prop up the dollar, squeeze equity valuations, and drain liquidity across risk assets. Andre Dragosch, Bitwise Europe's head of research, pointed out that several macro forces still play in Bitcoin's favor: recession fears fading, real interest rates declining if the Fed stays pat while inflation climbs, and a yawning gap between Bitcoin and global money supply trends. In that framework, financial repression remains one of the friendliest environments for the asset. That narrative has gained traction as oil's rally boxes the Fed into a tighter corridor. If policymakers cut rates while energy prices stay elevated, real yields could drop, boosting Bitcoin's appeal. Conversely, if the Fed stays restrictive to keep inflation expectations in check, Bitcoin's April bounce could face the same headwinds that dragged on the asset earlier this year. For now, traders are treating $78,000 as the first checkpoint, though a failed run at $80,000 would leave the move exposed to the same macro forces that drove previous pullbacks.