Bitcoin is officially giving the global money supply the cold shoulder. Since the middle of 2025, the asset has been ghosting M2 growth, a trend that’s gotten thiccer than a degen’s leverage bag as we slide deeper into 2026. For years, the strategy was brain-dead simple: when the Fed hits print, BTC hits ATH. But now? That correlation is shattered, leaving analysts in a full-blown civil war over what happens next.
On the front lines, the inflationary hedlers are still holding the line like it’s 2021. Fidelity Digital Assets insists the old magic still works. Their January report argues Bitcoin’s bull cycles have always synced perfectly with M2 acceleration. With the Fed ending its QT program and a fresh easing cycle kicking off, Fidelity sees a "positive catalyst" for 2026. They argue Bitcoin’s hard cap makes it the ultimate sponge for excess liquidity, absorbing cash way better than dusty hedges like gold.
Joining the bull chorus, analyst MartyParty is staring at the charts with a 50-day lag and a bag of hopium. He sees the M2 divergence as a massive coiled spring, predicting a face-melting bounce to catch up with liquidity growth as early as January 12th. The thesis is straightforward: the liquidity is coming, and Bitcoin is just fashionably late to the rave.
But the charts are screaming a different narrative. While global M2 is pumping over 10% YoY, Bitcoin’s growth is deep in the red. This divergence has the bears smelling blood in the water. Mister Crypto points out that historical decouplings of this magnitude have a nasty habit of marking major market tops, often followed by two to four years of brutal bear market pain and therapy sessions.
Then there’s the tinfoil-hat brigade, led by Charles Edwards, who argues this isn’t about money—it’s about time. Edwards claims 2025 marked Bitcoin’s entry into the "Quantum Event Horizon." The fear is no longer theoretical: the timeframe for a quantum computer to crack Bitcoin’s encryption is now shorter than the estimated time to upgrade the network. Money isn't leaving because it hates profit; it's repositioning to hedge a black swan risk that could render the entire network obsolete overnight.
In short, the battlefield is drawn. One camp sees the money printer warming up and expects a rally to the moon. The other sees a quantum sword of Damocles hanging directly over the network. Throw in geopolitical risks like yen carry trade blowups and global conflict, and 2026 is shaping up to be a wild ride with no safety rails. But for the true maxis, none of this matters—they’re betting on Bitcoin’s 15-year track record of surviving everything the world throws at it.
